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05.20
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Earlier in the offseason, I posted my 2013 Fantasy Football Ranks, so that everyone could get prepared for the fantasy football season. If you missed those rankings, they are posted here.I asked for a lot of feedback, so I knew how to look more in depth at each individual. I won’t be writing about each individual player, instead I will look to spend more time on players that might represent more points for discussion. Charlie and Mitch were more than happy to toss some thoughts about my ranks on the August 14 Tapping the Keg Podcast, if you missed that, the link is here.I’ll use some of the players they mentioned, some players SnoTap contributor Bryan Reynolds mentioned, and players I think are points of discussion this offseason. If you there is anyone you disagree with my rankings on, as always send them to SnoTap12@gmail.com, and I’ll make sure to address it in the next column.
#6 Andrew Luck- For many, Andrew Luck is the least exciting of the four young quarterbacks who burst onto the scene last year. This is going to lead to Luck being undervalued. Yes, Luck does not have the flat out speed that the other three possess that add to their fantasy value, but Indianapolis used him in short yardage situations last season, and he did get 5 rushing touchdowns. That number is likely to go down, but I think he is the safest bet of the four to see his passing numbers go up. Luck was good last year, but also threw a lot of interceptions and made rookie mistakes. He’s a smart guy, he’s going to figure out what defenses are doing to him, and he’s my pick to break out a bit this year. Draft him, and keep him as your only quarterback, he’s going to be a top passer for years to come.
#7 Matt Ryan- Outside of Rodgers/Brees, I think Matt Ryan is the safest QB on the board. He has a glut of elite targets at his disposal with Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez. However, with how amazing last season was, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of room for improvement, which contributes to keeping the ranking at 7. Barring injury, he’s a safe bet to finish in the top 10 of quarterbacks, but is unlikely to break through the ceiling and get in the top 5. If Ryan is your target, you can wait awhile to draft him, and focus on other positions, while still getting consistent scoring.
#8 Russell Wilson- Number 8 might be too high for Wilson, but he straight up dominated the second half of the fantasy season, after the Seahawks started running more read option plays in their offense. A lot has been made about the loss of Percy Harvin, who was presumed to be Wilson’s new number one target. The key to that is the word new however, as Wilson will be returning many of the same targets he had last season. If Wilson can continue the momentum he had at the end of last season, he will continue to provide excellent depth to the quarterback position.
#9 Colin Kaepernick-Kaepernick was one of the hardest quarterbacks to rank this season. He broke out during the second half of the season, and showed the peak of his ability against the Packers in the postseason, where fantasy points don’t count. However, he lost his number one option, Michael Crabtree, for the season. The pure potential makes him an attractive option, but the uncertainty keeps him from being an upper-echelon starter. The 9th ranking makes him a low-end starter in smaller leagues, but he has perhaps the widest range of outcomes for his season. He will either be a top-5 quarterback, or a bust in people’s eyes. If you end up with Kaepernick, try to back him up with someone like Eli Manning or Carson Palmer, two guys who won’t light the league on fire, but have the ability to put up some decent points as backups/bye-week fill-ins.
#11 Matthew Stafford- The Lions had a really weird season last year, one that caused Stafford to lead the NFL in attempts by a huge margin. This year, Detroit has added Reggie Bush to hopefully add a few more rushing attempts to Detroit’s gameplan. I believe the Lions also won’t be playing from behind as much this season, causing less pass attempts for Stafford as well. I think as an NFL player, Stafford will have a better season than last year, but as a fantasy quarterback he might dip a little bit. Stafford is a must own player, but not a high end starter. I’d try to combine Stafford with a high risk backup, like Josh Freeman, in case he breaks out.
#15 Carson Palmer-You want to own Carson Palmer in your league. Palmer was a fantasy stud back in his Bengals days, and was even able to have some fantasy success with a terrible team in Oakland. Now, Palmer finds himself in a pass first offense, with one of the best receivers in the game, solidifying one of the worst quarterback combos in the NFL in recent times. If Palmer is able to stay healthy, and get enough time to throw to Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona has enough other targets to insure he is productive. Palmer has top-10 upside in my mind, and can be had for a great value late in drafts. Make sure to pick him up.
#22 Phillip Rivers & #23 Matt Schaub- On the podcast, Mitch and Charlie mentioned that they wouldn’t go near Rivers or Schaub, and I absolutely agree. These are two names that might get drafted near the end of your draft by someone who is looking for name value only. Both of these guys were weak last year, and should be free agents in most leagues. I only view 16-18 QBs as guys who need to be owned the whole season, and Rivers and Schaub do not make that list. If you need a fill-in, these guys could prove their value, but both do not put up enough consistent passing numbers to warrant serious consideration. If you are looking for an end of the draft quarterback, opt instead for someone like Ryan Tannehill, who is young enough to potentially experience a jump in points.
Check back tomorrow, as we look at the tight end position.
Adam
