Tap's Fantasy Report: Week 2

TFR: Tap’s Fantasy Report Week One

Here at SnoTap, we will be helping you weekly throughout the football season. We will recap what happens each week on Tuesday, and also give you some advice on how to use these happenings to win your league. If you have any questions, put them in the comments below or email SnoTap12@gmail.com, and we will answer them in a future post.

Philip Rivers:  We discussed in the preseason that Philip Rivers is not a top level quarterback, and shouldn't be trusted in fantasy leagues anymore. He has had a huge first two weeks, forcing a lot of people to believe in him again. I may be wrong, but I’m still not buying it. San Diego has always been able to do weird things on the opening week Monday night game that nobody gets to watch, and the Eagles defense is shaky at best.  This may be confirmation bias, but I really don’t think Rivers can produce at this level all season, even though we've seen him do it before. I think he’s risen slightly from our preseason rankings, but he’s still not a starting caliber fantasy player. He’s a solid bye week fill-in, or backup that should be owned in every league, but don’t get crazy and start him over any other stud quarterbacks.

Stevan Ridley: I’m still high on Ridley, and if your league’s Ridley owner is freaking out, go ahead and try to acquire him. The Week 1 concern with Ridley was his fumbles, and Shane Vereen stealing his carries. The Week 2 concern is that he only ran for 40 yards. Looking at both games, I’m not concerned about any of this. Vereen is hurt, the Jets have an underrated run defense that was able to bottle up Doug Martin as well, and the Patriots are going to need Ridley to carry the ball a lot to be successful. The most important stat when it comes to Ridley is that he was able to get 16 carries in the Jets game. Moving forward, he’ll continue to get the ball, and he’ll start finding some yards and touchdowns.

Knowshon Moreno: In the preseason, we talked about avoiding the Denver running back situation, because there wasn't going to be much clarity. After two weeks, it’s now fairly clear what is happening in Denver and how you need to react. Moreno is someone that is going to be on the field a lot, and it’s clear Manning trusts him running the ball and with a few check downs, his upside is limited, but he’s a safe bet. Montee Ball still has the highest upside, but fumbles and pass protection might hinder in certain weeks. He needs to be owned still. Ronnie Hillman appears to be the odd man out until injuries happen, even at that point; I don’t see a lot of value there. Find which type of player you’d most like to own, and go after them.

Eddie Royal: Anybody who says they expected Royal to have 5 touchdowns in the first two weeks this season is lying to you.  Moving forward, it’s most important to determine Royal’s future value, as the vast majority of owners were not able to start Royal leading up to these games. Honestly, I don’t see Royal as having a ton of value long term, as the Chargers offense is likely to slow down a bit, but Royal is still getting a lot of points. There are other receivers who are available in many leagues that I would rather have, but Royal is a must add this week. Although his long term value is likely low, he has some good matchups the next four weeks, playing the Titans, Cowboys, Raiders, and Colts. He might be a good sell high candidate after that stretch.  

Julian Edelman: A lot is being made of the number of targets Julian Edelman got Thursday night against the Jets. With Danny Amendola getting injured again, it seems like there is some room in the slot in New England for someone to step up. Edelman doesn't have immense value in non-PPR leagues, because it doesn't seem like he’s getting deep targets or red-zone targets, but he’s a great depth receiver for your team, and should see some big point totals with all the targets he’s getting. Definitely a solid value moving forward, especially since he seems to be one of the very few receiving options that can hold on to the ball.

Martellus Bennett: I was wrong. Going into the season, I didn't get all the Bennett love, we've been waiting for years for his potential to come through, and we've been waiting for years for a Bears tight end to actually produce. It seemed like Hype-Heaven, where players get big contracts but don’t produce, it seemed like an easy bust selection. I was wrong, he’s got a lot of talent, that the Bears are taking advantage of. He’s a break out tight end, in a year where a lot of tight ends are putting up some big points. If he’s available (he’s probably not) you have to scoop him up, because you’re not going to be able to trade for him.

Buy Low: Anquan Boldin, Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead (PPR only), Bryce Brown, Montee Ball, and Robert Griffin III

Sell High: DeSean Jackson and Michael Vick.

Read More

Tap's Fantasy Report: Week 1

TFR: Tap’s Fantasy Report Week One

Here at SnoTap, we will be helping you weekly throughout the football season. We will recap what happens each week on Tuesday, and also give you some advice on how to use these happenings to win your league. If you have any questions, put them in the comments below or email SnoTap12@gmail.com, and we will answer them in a future post.

Terrelle Pryor-Pryor was mentioned in our Free Agent Finds article, and while we missed on some guys, the logic we used for Pryor came true Week 1. Pryor is not going destroy the NFL for this throwing ability, his goal in that department should be to improve each week, and hopefully create a successful career for himself. In Week 1 against the Colts, he was able to add 112 rushing yards to his passing statistics. His athletic and rushing ability is what makes Pryor fantasy relevant, as well as the lack of serious threat at the quarterback position (sorry Matt Flynn). It should be noted, that the Colts defense is not one of the league’s strongest, (Erick Walden specifically has proven he can’t chase down running quarterbacks, tough post for former Packers) so there are going to be a few rough games in Pryor’s future. Pick him up as a stash option if you can, as he will have some games where he will be a quality starting quarterback, but if you have a reliable top QB, don’t waste a high waiver claim or a lot of FAB money on him. If you already own him, and someone is offering you someone you might start in return, jump on that deal quickly.

Reggie Bush- Yes, Bush lost two scores that he seemingly earned, but he looked like a complete stud, and it looked like the Lions are finally going to be the team to use him to his full potential. He seemed a lot faster than anyone else on the field, and brought a good rushing and receiving threat. This is exactly what owners who drafted Bush were hoping for. However, this is Reggie Bush, all of our preseason concerns are still there, including injuries, which he battled during this game. If you are able to swing Bush for an under performing top 15 back, perhaps a fellow team panicking on Doug Martin or CJ Spiller, pull the trigger. Bush’s value is never going to be higher, he has a chance for a monster year, but he has a chance to break your heart.

David Wilson-If you own David Wilson, take a deep breath. You went through a tough Week 1, but it will get better. Yes, he was benched due to fumbles, but he had fumbling problems at the beginning of last year, and Tom Coughlin had the same type of issues with Tiki Barber. Wilson will get another chance, likely in Week 2, to redeem himself. He will be motivated, and he has a ton of talent still. If Andre Brown didn’t have a broken leg, Wilson would be in more trouble, but the Giants have nobody else. The opportunity is there. Don’t trade him yet if you drafted him, you won’t get value in return, but if you don’t own him, see if the Wilson owner is panicking yet.

Julian Edelman­-Edelman stepped up in the Patriots lack of playmakers, and caught 7 passes for 79 yards and two touchdowns. This is one of the tougher players to get a read on, as he has flashed potential in the past, and has an awesome quarterback throwing to him, but he also has an injury history, and has a difficult to predict offense.  He is likely owned in a lot of leagues, but if he is on the free agent wire, the time to act is now. There are better targets to go after this week, but Edelman will be a good consolation prize as the waiver order processes. If he is already owned in your league, wait a bit longer to see if this is for real or not, it’s still too tough to tell.

Anquan Boldin­-If I was cooler, like Charlie, I’d have a better way to say that Boldin tore up the Packers secondary, but I’m here for my stat-nerdness, not my cool factor, so that will have to do. If you own Boldin, sell high, sell high, sell high. A lot was made of the Packers inability to stop Boldin, and you have to give him all the credit in the world, but that is not a typical 49ers game plan. For the rest of the season, San Fran will pick up more yards on the ground, and they will face a few more teams with larger defensive backs. Boldin was able to dominate due to his size.  Due to these factors, Boldin will have a decent, but not great year. If there is someone overvaluing him, take advantage of it.

Julius Thomas-Since the game was on Thursday, it has calmed down slightly, but people were losing their mind over Thomas’ performance against the Ravens, and it was deserved. Two of the three tight ends in our Free Agent Find post had huge weeks (Thomas, Jordan Cameron) and one was an absolute dud (Zach Sudfeld). If you were smart enough to pick up Thomas before Week 1, sell high now if you can get a good deal. He still has injury history, there are still a lot of targets in that Denver offense, and they won’t put up that many points each week. If you can get a starter at running back or wide receiver, pull the trigger.

Each week, we will discuss some buy low and sell high candidates. We’ll explain our general rules for these categories since it’s Week 1. Everyone should always be available for trade on your team, don’t fall too in love with any individual player, as if someone offers you a ridiculous value, you should take it. The buy low and sell high designations are reserved for when the general public in a league is likely overrating or underrating the value of specific players. A key to winning is identifying these situations and getting upgrades. That being said, don’t trade for, or trade away any of these players without winning the value proposition, unless it helps you position wise.

Buy Low Candidates: Marlon Brown, David Wilson, Lamar Miller, Stevan Ridley, Eddie Lacy, and Cecil Shorts

Sell High Candidates: Reggie Bush, Anquan Boldin, Julius Thomas, and Danny Amendola.

Read More

Star Ratings: Packers at Niners

If you read Sports News on Tap last year, we started doing Star Ratings where we graded out how the game went for the Packers. This will be our Packer feature on Monday morning unless there is something else that needs to be talked about with this team.  It goes from being really encouraging to being negative pretty quickly here so hold on to your butts.

Five Stars
Jordy Nelson - Remember the Packers wide receiver did not play at all for the entire preseason. Many people worried about Nelson's health and if he was fully recovered from his knee injury.  Nelson finished the game with seven receptions, 130 yards and a touchdown. One of the catches was an absolutely ridiculous toe-tap that I believe only a few receivers in the entire National Football League.

Ryan Pickett - While much was made about the return of Johnny Jolly, Ryan Pickett played like a grown ass man on Sunday.  Save the last San Francisco touchdown drive, the Packers rush defense looked excellent today and Pickett had a lot to do with it. It is pretty clear the words about him taking care of himself in the offseason is not bullshit player speak. Pickett is one of the more under regarded players, but he can ball with the best of them.

Clay Matthews - What a game from Clay.  Talk about a player who backed up his mouth with his play. I cannot remember a game where Matthews seemed so involved with almost every play. He only had one sack but he had three TFL's as well meaning four of his six tackles were in the backfield. When fully healthy, Matthews is a complete player and a monster. In my opinion, he feels like the team got too soft throughout the year and he wants to put the anger back in this defense.

Anquan Boldin - Remember when I wrote a week ago that I worried about Boldin's age? Yeah I am an idiot. He put on his grown man moves today and probably made every Baltimore Ravens fan drink whisky with their dinner tonight.  Could it be the Packers safeties were just that bad? Yes, but at the same time, I feel like Boldin showed he had some gas left in the tank. Watching him against the Legion of Boom next week will be fun.

Four Stars
Tim Masthay - GINGER WOLVERINE IS AN ACTUAL WOLVERINE.  For whatever reason, Mike McCarthy decided Masthay will be doing the kickoffs and he did a fantastic job. But he also got in on two of the tackles, making one and getting blown up on another one. Nothing is better than a kicker or punter who gives zero f---s about his body.

Randall Cobb - Big time game from Randy but I feel like that's what we come to expect at this point. I did not throw Aaron Rodgers into the first week of Star Ratings for this very reason although he played pretty well.  Cobb continues to be one of the best threats the Packers have on their team.  We talked about his hype all August and as always,  we look forward to the day where we can say we were wrong about calling him a bit over-hyped.

Sam Shields - For as bad as the secondary was on Sunday, Shields played pretty well.  He made the great play on Colin Kaepernick's deep ball making sure Kyle Williams did not get a touchdown. Shields also seemed to blanket the outsides pretty well.  The big gains were all throughout the middle of the field which should absolve Shields of some of the criticism although I wonder why he did not stick with Boldin more than he did.

Colin Kaepernick - He beat the Packers with his arm, not his legs. That should scare the shit out the NFL. It scares me. I still think he is not all there when it comes to decision-making, but Kaepernick will sort that out. I find it crazy he still has not played a full season in the NFL. The future is white hot bright for him.

Three Stars
Badass Team - Some people will criticize Clay Matthews for acting like a cheetah in the wild pouncing on Kaepernick clearly after the play and instigating a fight between the teams. But you know what, I loved it. This team lacked a sense of mean to them. They always looked soft, not ready to stand up to anyone unlike the 2010 squad whom would jaw with anyone in shouting distance. I hope this continues as the year goes on and also the defense gets better. The latter part is more important than being swashbucklers but still, it's nice to see a little attitude on the field.

David Bakhtiari - For this first game of his NFL career against one of the best pass rushes, I feel like he held his own for the most part. He did not get called for one single holding penalty and kept Rodgers protected more often than not.

Two Stars
Eddie Lacy - This is a harsh two stars section because I am picking on two rookies in their first game, but this is how Star Ratings works, we are not here to mess around. Lacy showed some promise in the drive to put the Packers ahead and I am fully confident he will have some big games when the rush defense is not one of the best in the league.

Micah Hyde - I want to welcome Micah Hyde to the league and why preseason means virtually nothing. Hyde got bapitized by Boldin and the boys Sunday afternoon.  He should be fine, but it shows the notion of him being better than Casey Hayward a bit absurd.

One Star
Jerron McMillian - There is not much nice I can say about McMillian. He did not really come up and make a couple big hits. He definitely did not defend the safeties or the middle at all. Look I do not care if you get flagged for a hit, at least let the offense know you exist.  McMillian was a ghost.

Jeremy Ross - Get somebody taking the kicks back who believes they are a football player, not Usian Bolt. Ross cost the Packers 20 or so yards of field position by taking two deep balls out of the end zone.

Bill Leavy's Crew - So after the fracas, the Niners and Packers received off-setting personal foul penalties and the referees replayed the down leading to a touchdown by San Francisco but FOX's Mike Pereira pointed out it should have been 4th and 2 instead. Leavy admitted fault but it basically cost the Packers four points. They lost the game by six with the final three comes late. It could have been a much different game.

Charlie.

Read More

32 in 31: San Francisco 49ers

Another year of 32 in 31. Sports News on Tap takes the month of August and September to preview the National Football League. We spend every day of the month looking at a new team and how they will fare in 2013

Truth be told, I did a crappy job with the NFL previews in terms of getting them out when I said they would be due out. With work and life, I did not make it happen as I was able to last year when I hung out all day depressed about a job I did not get and gaining weight by the minute. We will hopefully be done by Wednesday and from there, we will launch our NFL coverage on Thursday with picks, a podcast and predictions. More picks to come Friday with a Packer preview including our newest feature, the Packer Playlist. On to the Niners.

OFFENSE
People are all over the place with Colin Kaepernick to start the 2013 NFL year. Ron Jaworski is apparently a relative of his, and others tend to worry about the lack of receivers he has this season.  I am on the side of the latter. Kaepernick is incredible in terms of how well he can pass and run the football, but he definitely does not have high quality tools in that offense.  Anquan Boldin and Frank Gore are both great players who have been a valued impact for the last several years although they are 32 and 30 respectively. At some point, their wheels will start wearing down and I think that is more so the concern with Gore moving forward although there is a ton of talent behind him in the depth chart.

Michael Crabtree grew as a player when Kaepernick took over as the top target. He tore his Achilles tendon early on in training camp and some believe him back in Week 12 of the NFL season.  I have no idea if Crabtree can make it back for the 12th week of the NFL season, but it is unrealistic to expect Crabtree to play at his same level when or if he comes back this season. To expect Boldin to fill Crabtree's void is living in a dream world.

Vernon Davis is one of the players to watch this season in my eyes because he became such a non-factor in the Niners offense when Kaepernick took over. Davis flourished playing with Alex Smith whom always seemed to find Davis in space with the clearest example being the 2012 NFL Playoffs. It seemed like the Kaepernick-Davis connection was starting to develop at the end of the playoffs as he had two straight games of 100 yards thus we have a Dr. Jeckell/Mr. Hyde sort of thing going with this duo. Davis can quickly be the guy Crabtree was at least from a pass-catching standpoint.

DEFENSE
The Niners defense is not for the weak of heart. They are one of the best in the business and they did not lose much from last year's dominating defense. Patrick Willis is the leader and probably holds the crown as the best linebacker in the National Football League. Willis missed all of the preseason as he had hand surgery but is expected to be ready for the start of the season. There is no real reason to be concerned with Willis going forward and he also has a lot of help around him at the linebacker position.

Navarro Bowman does not get enough credit because Willis is right next to him, but Bowman would be a starting linebacker in any 3-4, maybe any 4-3 defense in the NFL. Aldon Smith is probably poised for another big year at sacking the quarterback, but he will need to do more. With the zone-read growing, Smith is going to have to play a little more in control without getting burned by quarterbacks running the football on him.

The Niners lost Dashon Goldson to free agency, and they will be trotting out rookie free safety Eric Reid to begin the year. Now I thought Goldson was overrated and just a dirty player honestly given the way he threw his body around so I do not know how much they are losing, but starting a rookie is always a concern at least in the first couple weeks of the season.  I would not sleep on Nnamdi Asomugha either, I just have a weird feeling about him.

SPECIAL TEAMS
They got rid of David Akers for Phil Dawson, the long-time Cleveland Browns kicker so it will be interesting to see him in high-pressured situations. Dawson had only one season in the postseason and that was over 10 years ago. This is something not really being talked about with Dawson and one to keep an eye on.

KEY ADDITIONS
WR Anquan Boldin, CB Nnamdi Asomugha, K Phil Dawson, DE Glenn Dorsey, OG Adam Snyder, QB Colt McCoy - There are a lot of guys in college football who do not translate to the NFL and it blows my mind they were not that good. Glenn Dorsey is one of them to me; I thought he would be great.

KEY SUBTRACTIONS
S Dashon Goldson, QB Alex Smith, NT Issac Sopoaga, TE Delanie Walker, K David Akers, OG Leonard Davis, WR/KR Ted Ginn,

NINERS DRAFT PICKS
S Eric Reid, DE Tank Carradine, TE Vance McDonald, LB Corey Lemonier, WR Quinton Patton, RB Marcus Lattimore, DT Quinton Dial, LB Nick Moody, QB B.J. Daniels, OT Carter Bykowski, CB Marcus Cooper - It is hard not to like the Niners draft here. Lattimore is not playing this season, but he could be the most value in the long-term.

GAME TO WATCH
Sunday December 8th vs. Seattle 3:25 pm - These two teams will probably meet for the NFC West division crown and the Niners get the advantage of playing at home in December unlike last year.  This is the best rivalry in the NFL.  

WIN TOTAL
10-12 - They might be the best team in the NFC with 12 wins. It might be annoying, but I will repeat this again, how good the NFC is this year. I cannot see any team winning more than 12 games in the NFC.

Charlie.

Read More