Tap's Fantasy Report: Week 1

TFR: Tap’s Fantasy Report Week One

Here at SnoTap, we will be helping you weekly throughout the football season. We will recap what happens each week on Tuesday, and also give you some advice on how to use these happenings to win your league. If you have any questions, put them in the comments below or email SnoTap12@gmail.com, and we will answer them in a future post.

Terrelle Pryor-Pryor was mentioned in our Free Agent Finds article, and while we missed on some guys, the logic we used for Pryor came true Week 1. Pryor is not going destroy the NFL for this throwing ability, his goal in that department should be to improve each week, and hopefully create a successful career for himself. In Week 1 against the Colts, he was able to add 112 rushing yards to his passing statistics. His athletic and rushing ability is what makes Pryor fantasy relevant, as well as the lack of serious threat at the quarterback position (sorry Matt Flynn). It should be noted, that the Colts defense is not one of the league’s strongest, (Erick Walden specifically has proven he can’t chase down running quarterbacks, tough post for former Packers) so there are going to be a few rough games in Pryor’s future. Pick him up as a stash option if you can, as he will have some games where he will be a quality starting quarterback, but if you have a reliable top QB, don’t waste a high waiver claim or a lot of FAB money on him. If you already own him, and someone is offering you someone you might start in return, jump on that deal quickly.

Reggie Bush- Yes, Bush lost two scores that he seemingly earned, but he looked like a complete stud, and it looked like the Lions are finally going to be the team to use him to his full potential. He seemed a lot faster than anyone else on the field, and brought a good rushing and receiving threat. This is exactly what owners who drafted Bush were hoping for. However, this is Reggie Bush, all of our preseason concerns are still there, including injuries, which he battled during this game. If you are able to swing Bush for an under performing top 15 back, perhaps a fellow team panicking on Doug Martin or CJ Spiller, pull the trigger. Bush’s value is never going to be higher, he has a chance for a monster year, but he has a chance to break your heart.

David Wilson-If you own David Wilson, take a deep breath. You went through a tough Week 1, but it will get better. Yes, he was benched due to fumbles, but he had fumbling problems at the beginning of last year, and Tom Coughlin had the same type of issues with Tiki Barber. Wilson will get another chance, likely in Week 2, to redeem himself. He will be motivated, and he has a ton of talent still. If Andre Brown didn’t have a broken leg, Wilson would be in more trouble, but the Giants have nobody else. The opportunity is there. Don’t trade him yet if you drafted him, you won’t get value in return, but if you don’t own him, see if the Wilson owner is panicking yet.

Julian Edelman­-Edelman stepped up in the Patriots lack of playmakers, and caught 7 passes for 79 yards and two touchdowns. This is one of the tougher players to get a read on, as he has flashed potential in the past, and has an awesome quarterback throwing to him, but he also has an injury history, and has a difficult to predict offense.  He is likely owned in a lot of leagues, but if he is on the free agent wire, the time to act is now. There are better targets to go after this week, but Edelman will be a good consolation prize as the waiver order processes. If he is already owned in your league, wait a bit longer to see if this is for real or not, it’s still too tough to tell.

Anquan Boldin­-If I was cooler, like Charlie, I’d have a better way to say that Boldin tore up the Packers secondary, but I’m here for my stat-nerdness, not my cool factor, so that will have to do. If you own Boldin, sell high, sell high, sell high. A lot was made of the Packers inability to stop Boldin, and you have to give him all the credit in the world, but that is not a typical 49ers game plan. For the rest of the season, San Fran will pick up more yards on the ground, and they will face a few more teams with larger defensive backs. Boldin was able to dominate due to his size.  Due to these factors, Boldin will have a decent, but not great year. If there is someone overvaluing him, take advantage of it.

Julius Thomas-Since the game was on Thursday, it has calmed down slightly, but people were losing their mind over Thomas’ performance against the Ravens, and it was deserved. Two of the three tight ends in our Free Agent Find post had huge weeks (Thomas, Jordan Cameron) and one was an absolute dud (Zach Sudfeld). If you were smart enough to pick up Thomas before Week 1, sell high now if you can get a good deal. He still has injury history, there are still a lot of targets in that Denver offense, and they won’t put up that many points each week. If you can get a starter at running back or wide receiver, pull the trigger.

Each week, we will discuss some buy low and sell high candidates. We’ll explain our general rules for these categories since it’s Week 1. Everyone should always be available for trade on your team, don’t fall too in love with any individual player, as if someone offers you a ridiculous value, you should take it. The buy low and sell high designations are reserved for when the general public in a league is likely overrating or underrating the value of specific players. A key to winning is identifying these situations and getting upgrades. That being said, don’t trade for, or trade away any of these players without winning the value proposition, unless it helps you position wise.

Buy Low Candidates: Marlon Brown, David Wilson, Lamar Miller, Stevan Ridley, Eddie Lacy, and Cecil Shorts

Sell High Candidates: Reggie Bush, Anquan Boldin, Julius Thomas, and Danny Amendola.

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Fantasy WR Rankings Reaction

Earlier in the offseason, I posted my 2013 Fantasy Football Ranks, so that everyone could get prepared for the fantasy football season. If you missed those rankings, they are posted here.I asked for a lot of feedback, so I knew how to look more in depth at each individual. I won’t be writing about each individual player, instead I will look to spend more time on players that might represent more points for discussion. Charlie and Mitch were more than happy to toss some thoughts about my ranks on the August 14 Tapping the Keg Podcast, if you missed that, the link is here.I’ll use some of the players they mentioned, some players SnoTap contributor Bryan Reynolds mentioned, and players I think are points of discussion this offseason. If you there is anyone you disagree with my rankings on, as always send them to SnoTap12@gmail.com, and I’ll make sure to address it in the next column.




TE Rankings Reaction QB Rankings Reaction

#4 Andre Johnson- This was one of the hardest ranks for me at the wide receiver position. Johnson has always had immense talent on the field, but injuries, offensive game plan, and a lack of another target to take defense’s attention has led to an inconsistent fantasy career. Last year, Johnson put it together, especially at the end of the season, when it mattered most. This rank shows that I think Johnson has one more healthy season in him, and the Texans have an offense that will focus a bit more on getting him the ball. If Johnson stays healthy and preforms up to his potential, he is one of the few players that can give Megatron a run for the number one receiver spot, but he is a risky pick. Johnson has the ability to put up huge numbers, but also has the ability to be a wasted draft pick, choose carefully. 

#5 Larry Fitzgerald- Fitzgerald is coming off a season that was a disappointment to anyone that drafted him. He has been dealing with a roundtable of terrible quarterbacks over the past few seasons, and although Carson Palmer isn’t a Hall of Famer, an upgrade to adequate is just what Fitzgerald needs. I still view Larry as one of the best wide receivers in football, talent has never been his issue, quarterback play has. Now that he has someone that can get him the ball, I see a bounce back season in Fitzgerald’s future.  If Palmer can stay healthy, and get enough time to get the ball downfield, there is a great opportunity in the Arizona passing game. The fact that Fitzgerald can still win jump balls in the end zone will also help him and the Cardinals on the goal line. If the rest of your league is letting Fitzgerald slip in the draft, pick him up and get a great value.

#6 Dez Bryant- Charlie mentioned multiple times that he thinks Dez Bryant should be ranked higher. Many fantasy football players likely have Dez competing for the number two spot behind Calvin Johnson. I believe in Bryant stepping up this year, I just don’t think that we should rank him that high, just yet. He had an inconsistent start to his career, combining a lack of focus at times with injuries. Bryant did come on very strong at the end of last season, but I want to see him put it together for a long period of time before moving him up too far in the rankings. His potential to put together a disappointing season is what stops him from being ranked higher in my mind.

#18 Wes Welker- In the offseason, Wes Welker went from one Future Hall of Fame quarterback to another, transitioning from Tom Brady to Peyton Manning. Many people viewed this as an opportunity for Welker to continue to dominate, as Manning loves to throw it to slot receivers. I think Welker will be very successful in Denver, but will feature a reduction in value due to a couple reasons. The first is he is no longer the only receiver on his own team. In New England, Welker was hands down the number one receiver each season. In Denver, Welker has to fight with Eric Decker and DeMaryius Thomas for targets. Since Denver will throw the ball a lot, Welker will still have a lot of receptions, but it won’t be the insane number of targets he has had recently. The second reason Welker might not be as high of a value is chemistry with his quarterback. Although I have no doubt Welker and Manning will get along, there were few tandems with better chemistry than Brady and Welker. When Brady got in trouble, he knew where Welker would be on the field without even looking, it will take some time to develop that with Peyton. For those reasons, I think Welker will have a good, but not great season in Denver.

#19 Danny Amendola- For years, Wes Welker was a high end fantasy receiver for the New England Patriots, becoming an absolute stud in PPR leagues. For the last few seasons, people have compared former Rams WR Danny Amendola to Wes Welker. It only made sense when Welker moved to the Denver Broncos that Amendola would take his place. Since that move has taken place, many have said that Amendola will put up a monster season, replicating Welker’s performance, as long as he stayed healthy. I am not on board with that analysis. Amendola has a lot of potential, and is an injury risk, but it is not as easy as slotting him in Welker’s role, and getting the same results as long as they are on the field. Amendola needs to create chemistry with Tom Brady, needs to learn a new offense (something many young players have struggled with in New England), and then needs to stay healthy. Amendola has potential to be just as good as Wes Welker, that is true, but expecting it is going to lead to a lot of people reaching for him in drafts, be smart and realize there is more risk here than just injuries.

#23 Randall Cobb-Yes, I am a Packer fan. Yes, I am a huge Randall Cobb fan. Yes, I have heard all the reports about how much Rodgers loves Cobb, and how many targets he will get this season. No, I will probably not own Randall Cobb on any teams this year. The hype seems to be getting a bit high for Randall Cobb this offseason in terms of fantasy football. Just last season, many fantasy experts were talking about players needing to stay away from Packer receivers because with so many targets, it was hard to predict who would get the ball each week. That issue still seems to be present in my mind, with Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and a potentially refocused Jermichael Finley. Combine all of those receivers with an increased running game, and there might not be as many targets out there to make Cobb a number 1 fantasy receiver. So yes, I think Randall Cobb is a great player, and I’m very happy he is a member of my favorite team, I just think there is a chance he doesn’t have the amazing fantasy season people are starting to expect. 

Check back tomorrow for our reaction on the running back position.

Adam

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32 in 31: New England Patriots

Another year of 32 for 31, Sports News on Tap takes the month of August to preview the National Football League. We spend every day of the month looking at a new team and how they will fare in 2013. 

It is hard to remember if the New England Patriots had a rougher offseason in their time of being a powerhouse in the NFL. Usually, they mind their business, maybe Tom Brady gets caught dancing like a fool, but that is about it.  This year, things were completely different. The Patriots first signed Tim Tebow which went together for the national media like peanut butter and jelly. Give New England credit, the Tebow stuff has died down at least for the start of training camp; who knows what happens when he breaks a 48 yard run in preseason probably back to threat level over-excitement.  

Things went from just frantic to terrifying. In the late June, former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez was charged in the murder of Odin Lloyd. While the Patriots released Hernandez 90 minutes after his arrest, the black cloud hung over the team. They were the ones faced with a majority of the Hernandez questions, but as the Patriots usually do, they handled it like the utmost gentlemen. Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and Vince Wilfork all showed why they are leaders. Hernandez will probably be a discussion in correlation with this team for at least this year, but if anyone can handle a distraction in a orange jumpsuit, it's the Patriots. 

OFFENSE 

They have some real issues going on for the first time in a long while. The biggest problem is they will not have their top five receivers back from last season. Four of them are no longer on the team and the other will be battling injury to begin the year. They are definitely different quarterbacks by style, Brady and Brett Favre have some similarities in terms of personnel.  Favre never had many big name receivers and they all worked like a turnstile. Brady has had some notable names, but most have came and went. The one Brady does have going for him in the passing game is the offensive line should be pretty stacked. Nate Soldier is a beast along with Sebastian Vollmer plus their two mainstays at guard.  The running game will also be by committee to start as Steven Ridley still recovers from his injury suffered in the final game of the season.  

DEFENSE 

The Patriots are still looking for the days of Tedy Bruschi, Ty Law and others, but they will be improved this year.  I expect big years from Dont'a Hightower and Chandler Jones both entering their second season as professionals, to create some havoc in the front seven. Jared Mayo and Wilfork are the two more consistent players on this defense. They get a full year of Aqib Talib which will definitely help them in the secondary.  They also added Adrian Wilson from the Arizona Cardinals to help their secondary out which is probably their softest spot on defense.

SPECIAL TEAMS

One of the best in the business at both kicking and punting with Stephan Gostkowski who set a franchise record last year for his accuracy rate last season at 84.4.  Zoltan Mesko can boom punts with the best of them. They also got better in the return game adding Leon Washington who can break any kick or punt.  

KEY ADDITIONS 

WR Danny Amendola, RB LeGarrette Blount, WR Michael Jenkins DT Tommy Kelly, RB/KR Leon Washington, S Adrian Wilson - If the pressure was not enough for Amedola to replace Wes Welker, he will also try to make up for the Hernandez void as well. He must stay healthy and if he does, he will be a great addition to this team. 

KEY DEPARTURES 

WR Wes Welker, WR Deion Branch, S Patrick Chung, WR Brandon Lloyd, G Donald Thomas, RB Danny Woodhead, TE Aaron Hernandez 

PATRIOTS DRAFT PICKS 

DE/LB Jamie Collins, WR Aaron Dobson, CB Logan Ryan, S Duron Harmon, WR Josh Boyce, DE Michael Buchanan, LB Steve Beauharnais - Dobson is the one to watch in this group as he is a physical freak and will be asked to contribute right away.   

GAME TO WATCH

November 24th: vs. Denver 7:30 pm (NBC) - The annual Brady-Peyton Manning game will have a little more spice with Welker returning to Foxboro. Both teams will likely be healthy and trying to shape up for the postseason. It could also be a battle for gets homefield for the playoffs. 

PREDICTION 

10 to 12 wins - They have a tough schedule facing the AFC North and NFC South, two of the better divisions in football, but the Patriots are still the Patriots. I do not expect a significant drop-off especially in the weak AFC East.  

Charlie.  

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