Tap's Fantasy Report: Week 1

TFR: Tap’s Fantasy Report Week One

Here at SnoTap, we will be helping you weekly throughout the football season. We will recap what happens each week on Tuesday, and also give you some advice on how to use these happenings to win your league. If you have any questions, put them in the comments below or email SnoTap12@gmail.com, and we will answer them in a future post.

Terrelle Pryor-Pryor was mentioned in our Free Agent Finds article, and while we missed on some guys, the logic we used for Pryor came true Week 1. Pryor is not going destroy the NFL for this throwing ability, his goal in that department should be to improve each week, and hopefully create a successful career for himself. In Week 1 against the Colts, he was able to add 112 rushing yards to his passing statistics. His athletic and rushing ability is what makes Pryor fantasy relevant, as well as the lack of serious threat at the quarterback position (sorry Matt Flynn). It should be noted, that the Colts defense is not one of the league’s strongest, (Erick Walden specifically has proven he can’t chase down running quarterbacks, tough post for former Packers) so there are going to be a few rough games in Pryor’s future. Pick him up as a stash option if you can, as he will have some games where he will be a quality starting quarterback, but if you have a reliable top QB, don’t waste a high waiver claim or a lot of FAB money on him. If you already own him, and someone is offering you someone you might start in return, jump on that deal quickly.

Reggie Bush- Yes, Bush lost two scores that he seemingly earned, but he looked like a complete stud, and it looked like the Lions are finally going to be the team to use him to his full potential. He seemed a lot faster than anyone else on the field, and brought a good rushing and receiving threat. This is exactly what owners who drafted Bush were hoping for. However, this is Reggie Bush, all of our preseason concerns are still there, including injuries, which he battled during this game. If you are able to swing Bush for an under performing top 15 back, perhaps a fellow team panicking on Doug Martin or CJ Spiller, pull the trigger. Bush’s value is never going to be higher, he has a chance for a monster year, but he has a chance to break your heart.

David Wilson-If you own David Wilson, take a deep breath. You went through a tough Week 1, but it will get better. Yes, he was benched due to fumbles, but he had fumbling problems at the beginning of last year, and Tom Coughlin had the same type of issues with Tiki Barber. Wilson will get another chance, likely in Week 2, to redeem himself. He will be motivated, and he has a ton of talent still. If Andre Brown didn’t have a broken leg, Wilson would be in more trouble, but the Giants have nobody else. The opportunity is there. Don’t trade him yet if you drafted him, you won’t get value in return, but if you don’t own him, see if the Wilson owner is panicking yet.

Julian Edelman­-Edelman stepped up in the Patriots lack of playmakers, and caught 7 passes for 79 yards and two touchdowns. This is one of the tougher players to get a read on, as he has flashed potential in the past, and has an awesome quarterback throwing to him, but he also has an injury history, and has a difficult to predict offense.  He is likely owned in a lot of leagues, but if he is on the free agent wire, the time to act is now. There are better targets to go after this week, but Edelman will be a good consolation prize as the waiver order processes. If he is already owned in your league, wait a bit longer to see if this is for real or not, it’s still too tough to tell.

Anquan Boldin­-If I was cooler, like Charlie, I’d have a better way to say that Boldin tore up the Packers secondary, but I’m here for my stat-nerdness, not my cool factor, so that will have to do. If you own Boldin, sell high, sell high, sell high. A lot was made of the Packers inability to stop Boldin, and you have to give him all the credit in the world, but that is not a typical 49ers game plan. For the rest of the season, San Fran will pick up more yards on the ground, and they will face a few more teams with larger defensive backs. Boldin was able to dominate due to his size.  Due to these factors, Boldin will have a decent, but not great year. If there is someone overvaluing him, take advantage of it.

Julius Thomas-Since the game was on Thursday, it has calmed down slightly, but people were losing their mind over Thomas’ performance against the Ravens, and it was deserved. Two of the three tight ends in our Free Agent Find post had huge weeks (Thomas, Jordan Cameron) and one was an absolute dud (Zach Sudfeld). If you were smart enough to pick up Thomas before Week 1, sell high now if you can get a good deal. He still has injury history, there are still a lot of targets in that Denver offense, and they won’t put up that many points each week. If you can get a starter at running back or wide receiver, pull the trigger.

Each week, we will discuss some buy low and sell high candidates. We’ll explain our general rules for these categories since it’s Week 1. Everyone should always be available for trade on your team, don’t fall too in love with any individual player, as if someone offers you a ridiculous value, you should take it. The buy low and sell high designations are reserved for when the general public in a league is likely overrating or underrating the value of specific players. A key to winning is identifying these situations and getting upgrades. That being said, don’t trade for, or trade away any of these players without winning the value proposition, unless it helps you position wise.

Buy Low Candidates: Marlon Brown, David Wilson, Lamar Miller, Stevan Ridley, Eddie Lacy, and Cecil Shorts

Sell High Candidates: Reggie Bush, Anquan Boldin, Julius Thomas, and Danny Amendola.

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32 in 31: New York Giants

Another year of 32 in 31. Sports News on Tap takes the month of August to preview the National Football League. We spend every day of the month looking at a new team and how they will fare in 2013.

In case you are wondering about putting the New York Giants in the playoffs this season, you must know about the Super Bowl curse. New York is hosting the Super Bowl in the first cold weather Super Bowl in history and it is sure to be overblown to sky high levels.  But teams who host the Super Bowl, do not usually make the playoffs. In fact, the last team to even make the playoffs when they hosted the Super Bowl was the 2000 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  Only two teams in the last 10 years have above .500 record as the chart will show you.

Year	Super Bowl Host	Record
2012	New Orleans	7-9
2011	Indianapolis	2-14
2010	Dallas	6-10
2009	Miami	7-9
2008	Tampa	9-7
2007	Phoenix	8-8
2006	Miami	6-10
2005	Detroit	5-11
2004	Jacksonville	9-7
2003	Houston	5-11
2002	San Diego	8-8

OFFENSE
I think Eli Manning will never get the credit that he probably deserves honestly. He is the younger brother of Peyton Manning and yes, he might never been the quarterback as his older bro, but Eli is a damn good quarterback. He is a good enough quarterback to pull his team to victory. The thing where people knock Manning is he can turn in some godawful performances throughout the year and his noted struggles with New York's weather. I am convinced if Manning leaves at some point late in his career and goes to a place where the home games are in a dome, he will have a huge year.

Manning's receiver corps have been good for the last couple years, but they also seem to have some sort of injury. Victor Cruz is currently battling a foot injury and if he misses some time, it will directly affect the Giants. Hakeem Nicks might be a player to watch this year as he is in a contract year.  Those words are not uttered as much in football as it is in baseball, but Nicks could turn in a huge payday if he plays well.  I also would not sleep on Reuben Randle as a vertical threat. He's a player I believe would be good when he came out of LSU. Brandon Myers is mentioned in our key addition posts.

There is some definite uncertainty about their running backs. They are young and pretty good, but they are still unproven. Andre Brown looked great until he went out for the season with an injury. David Wilson is a good player with explosive speed, but has had troubles with fumbling the football.  They did draft a running back in the 7th round, but who knows with him.

DEFENSE
Some of their established players are a long gone with Osi Umenyiora, Kenny Phillips, Michael Boley and Chris Canty all gone from the team. Justin Tuck is battling through injuries yet again for the third straight season and that seems to be a yearly concern now. Jason Pierre-Paul has an outside shot of making it for week one and Tom Coughlin is saying 'He's close to coming off the PUP list.'  I cannot help but think Pierre-Paul will struggle with his back for at least the part of the season.

Their linebackers do not look much better either with Mark Herzlich and Dan Connor who is coming over from the Dallas Cowboys. I mean they are both good players, but they are not making Pro Bowls anytime soon.  I also do not know if their defensive linemen will help pave the way for these linebackers to fill holes and also opposing tight ends could have an absolute field day.

The secondary might be the bright spot with the defense with Prince Amukamara who looked awesome last season and Stevie Brown had a surprising breakout year. If Antrel Rolle stays healthy and Corey Webster finds his groove again, this can be a great secondary.

SPECIAL TEAMS
Larry Tynes is no more and they had over the reigns to Josh Brown. He is a competent kicker, but it is not easy to kick at MetLife. Steve Weatherford is still doing the punting and he's a good one. David Wilson will probably not return punts if he ends up as the starting running back, but they have plenty replacements.

KEY ADDITIONS
DT/DE Cullen Jenkins, LB Dan Connor, S Ryan Mundy, WR Louis Murphy, TE Brandon Myers, CB Aaron Ross - Myers will be absolutely huge for the Giants. I feel like he is a shade better than Bennett and Manning has his best tight end for his career.

KEY SUBTRACTIONS
TE Martellus Bennett, LB Chase Blackburn, DE Osi Umenyiora, RB Ahmad Bradshaw, DE Chris Canty, OT Sean Locklear, DT Rocky Bernard, LB Michael Boley, S Kenny Phillips, K Lawrence Tynes,

GIANTS DRAFT PICKS
OT Justin Pugh, DT Jonathan Hankins, DE Damontre Moore, QB Ryan Nassib, S Cooper Taylor, OG Eric Herman, RB Michael Cox  - Let's remember Hankins and Moore were both players that could have been first round picks if the intangibles were right.

GAME TO WATCH
Sunday December 15th vs. Seattle 12 pm - My assumption is this will be one of the games that makes and breaks their season.  If the Giants win this game, they might be a playoff team and if not, they will be on the outside. Seriously though, the NFC is scary good this year.

WIN TOTAL
8-10 - The Super Bowl curse is one of the more surefire things in the world, but the Giants seem to defy odds. I do not think they will make the playoffs because I feel there are too many holes with this team

Charlie.

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Fantasy RB Rankings Reaction

Earlier in the offseason, I posted my 2013 Fantasy Football Ranks, so that everyone could get prepared for the fantasy football season. If you missed those rankings, they are posted here.I asked for a lot of feedback, so I knew how to look more in depth at each individual. I won’t be writing about each individual player, instead I will look to spend more time on players that might represent more points for discussion. Charlie and Mitch were more than happy to toss some thoughts about my ranks on the August 14 Tapping the Keg Podcast, if you missed that, the link is here.I’ll use some of the players they mentioned, some players SnoTap contributor Bryan Reynolds mentioned, and players I think are points of discussion this offseason. If you there is anyone you disagree with my rankings on, as always send them to SnoTap12@gmail.com, and I’ll make sure to address it in the next column.

TE Rankings Reaction QB Rankings Reaction WR Rankings Reaction

#2 Marshawn Lynch- Lynch’s ranking says as much about all the other running backs this year than it does about him. I view Lynch as the safest among the players that are in contention for the number 2 slot (Foster, Rice, Charles, Martin, Spiller). Yes Lynch is getting slightly older, and there is some chance for some younger guys to steal a few carries, but Lynch is vital to what Seattle does on offense, and despite their acquisition of Percy Harvin in the offseason, the Seahawks will have to center their offense around the rushing attack again. If I’m picking for upside, Lynch slides down the list, but if I’m picking someone I want to make sure doesn’t fall out of the top 10, Lynch holds the number 2 slot.

#4 Ray Rice- I’m nowhere near as concerned about Ray Rice as everyone else seems to be. A lot of people are talking that Rice will have a down year due to being worked too much the previous seasons and the emergence of Bernard Pierce. While I do like Pierce as a value later in drafts, I see him having value independent of taking value away from Rice. The Ravens have gone through a lot of change in the offseason, and while Joe Flacco just got paid, I believe Ray Rice might be their best player. When a team has to adjust its identity, they’ll make sure to focus on their best players. I think Rice will get a good, but not overwhelming amount of carries this season, but more importantly will catch the ball out of the backfield a lot, as Flacco’s new security blanket on passing plays.

#6 Doug Martin- One of two things is going to happen to Doug Martin this year: he is going to be a top-4 back, that allows many to win their league for taking a chance on him, or he will not produce up to expectations and be the focus of many negative fantasy articles throughout the season. (Remember this sentence, it’ll look familiar soon). I’m a big fan of Martin this year, I’ve gone out of my way to trade for him in my important keeper league, but he’s definitely still a risk. I’ve seen people want him as their second best running back, behind only Adrian Peterson, but that’s a bit too high for me. I still have my concerns. Martin could easily fall victim to injuries, a sophomore jinx, or a slightly overrated end of season ranking, based too much on his monstrous performance against the Oakland Raiders.

#7 CJ Spiller- One of two things is going to happen to CJ Spiller this year: he is going to be a top-4 back, that allows many to win their league for taking a chance on him, or he will not produce up to expectations and be the focus of many negative fantasy articles throughout the season.  Much like Martin, I’ve gone out of my way to trade for in my important keeper league, but he’s definitely also a risk. Much has been made about Spiller getting all the carries and touches now in the Buffalo offense, but I’m not sure that’s the best use of Spiller. Spiller was able to dominate the fantasy world mostly by focusing on his big play ability, similar to how Jamaal Charles began his career. I’m not sure that an increase in offensive touches impacts him as much as it would for other players. If Spiller lives up to expectations, he will dominate, but there are still concerns such as injuries, that make me somewhat cautious.

Young RBs- I’m generally someone who is okay waiting a year or two for a running back to prove themselves before having them land on my team, especially when the player in question has a lot of hype surrounding them. While David Wilson, Lamar Miller, Montee Ball, and Le’Veon Bell are all being called “sleepers,” the popularity of fantasy football has left enough people informed that it will be tough to get a good value on these players. For guys that could easily lose carries to other running backs on their team, it’s tough to count on them for a high draft pick. Would you rather spend a fourth/fifth round pick on these guys, or wait a few rounds and draft Ronnie Hillman, Andre Brown, or Isaac Redman, and still get a higher end wide receiver?  Young running backs are certainly helpful to a team; just make sure you are finding the right guys at the right value.

New Orleans Saints RBs- Darren Sproles is clearly the running back to own of this group, but if either Pierre Thomas or Mark Ingram gets injured, make sure to pick up the other. The Saints running game has been notoriously difficult to predict, since they carried four players on the roster that were worthy of carries. Now that Chris Ivory is in New York, there is some clarity to the position. Sproles will play a lot, and get a lot of catches out of the backfield, but now the majority of the rushing attempts will split between two potentially productive players, both also have injury concerns, which could make the other worth owning.

Backfields to Avoid-

Arizona Cardinals-Unless Rashard Mendenhall or Ryan Williams can separate themselves, this will be a frustrating team.

Indianapolis Colts- Ahmad Bradshaw is the better player, but will be injured at times leading him and Vick Ballard to be frustrating to own.

Carolina Panthers- This has been obvious from the last few seasons, tough to predict with DeAngelo Williams, Jonathon Stewart, Mike Tolbert, and Cam Newton all getting rushing attempts. 

Sometime next week, we'll look into some guys that won't get drafted in most leagues that should be watched closely, for when they eventually break out this year.

Adam

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