NFL Picks Week 3: The Risk of Trading Trent Richardson

I swear news always break when I go to the gym. This is an unfortunate thing for me because most of the time when SportsCenter or one of ESPN/NBCSN/FOX original programming is on, I tend to watch reality television instead.  Why? Well, it is live-action absolutely brain-numbing entertainment that I can enjoy when I work out, do not judge me. My latest miss was Trent Richardson getting dealt to the Indianapolis Colts for a 2014 first-round draft pick. There is so much to look at with this trade, but right now, it makes Indianapolis smell like a rose and Cleveland like hot garbage. The key word for Cleveland is right now.

Indianapolis finally has their rushing attack to go along with Andrew Luck. This is something Peyton Manning lacked periodically throughout his Indianapolis career and the Colts front office made sure they would not have the same thing with Luck. The former number one draft pick gets a running back who can wear teams down late in games, pass protect and occasionally provide a safety valve in the backfield for passing. The Colts really have all you need in an offense when it comes to weapons although they miss a big part with a weak offensive line. It is hard to tell whether Richardson will do well there because every system is different, but going to one with an offensive coordinator who runs their offense like a college team, it seems like it would bode well for Richardson.

Cleveland is dealing with a public relations disaster. It is a damn good thing they are on the road this week. The fans basically feel like the team has given up the season in Week 3.  The value may never be higher for Richardson and they had to pull the trigger or they really do not give a shit about the fans. The latter is very possible. Cleveland wants to start fresh with their guys, their attitude and get everyone on the same page. The 2014 NFL Draft now becomes extremely important for Cleveland with their cornucopia of draft picks. If they mess up the 2014 NFL Draft, it will be the undoing of this franchise, not just the front office. These are the type of moves that define a franchise. Cleveland fans deserve to be pissed, but you never know what's down the pipeline.

St. Louis (1-1) at Dallas (1-1) (-4) 12:00 pm (FOX) - Fun game I think in the early slate of games. After St. Louis woke up from their slumber, they played pretty well on Sunday afternoon against Atlanta. Sam Bradford played one of his best games to date. Dez Bryant had a big game albeit a bad drop battling through injuries and will definitely could have a major impact again with Julio Jones having a 150+ yard game against this secondary. I really do not have a read on this game. I feel like it will be close and competitive with Dallas pulling it out. DAL 23-20

San Diego (1-1) at Tennessee (1-1) (-3) 12:00 pm (CBS) - In the first two weeks, these are the two teams I had a complete misfire on. San Diego's offense looks rejuvenated with Ken Wisenhunt calling plays for Phillip Rivers. Tennessee should be 2-0 but they let Houston find a way to win the game at the very end. This is the home opener for the Titans and I think they come in there with a little more fire than usual plus even with Rivers playing better, I worry about that defense. TENN 27-17

Cleveland (0-2) at Minnesota (0-2) (-7) 12:00 pm (CBS) - What an awful combination for Cleveland. They have to travel to the Metrodome for the Vikings first home game, Brian Hoyer is starting at quarterback and the Trent Richardson trade has people shook on the team. Minnesota needs this win badly and they smell blood in the water. Big day from all parties involved in the Minnesota offense. MINN 31-14

Green Bay (1-1) (-3)  at Cincinnati (1-1) 12:00 pm (FOX) - See our Packer preview up earlier this morning and feel free to check out the Packer playlist as well.

Tampa Bay (0-2) at New England (2-0) (-7) 12:00 pm (FOX) - The Adrian Clayborn Bowl!! Remember the former Iowa defensive end looked he impaled Tom Brady's knee in training camp when these two team scrimmaged. The Patriots have not been impressive thus far, but they will have a chance to make a statement. I also really think Tampa Bay's chemistry is still warped and not really working right now. This one will be closer than the spread leads on because the Patriots receivers are bad then add a tough secondary, it will become very tough for the Patriots receivers to get open leading to another frustrating day for Tom Brady. NE 24-20

Arizona (1-1) at New Orleans (2-0) (-7) 12:00 pm (FOX) - This should be a real fun matchup with Drew Brees and his receiving core versus the stacked secondary of Arizona.  It comes down to what 'weak link steps up for the team?'  Arizona offense or New Orleans defense? The Saints have sneaky been good on the defensive side of the football and the Cardinals are using a weaken Larry Fitzgerald. I like the Saints to pull away late in this one. NO 28-17

Detroit (1-1) at Washington (0-2) (-1.5) 12:00 pm (FOX) - Man... Washington is a in a must-win situation. The Lions do not really play well on the road, but they have a potent offense who could explode against the Redskins defense. If Detroit wants to be the team that some people have talked about in September, they need to win these kind of football games where they are a small underdog against a weaker opponent. The Lions looked weak without Reggie Bush who may or may not play plus the Redskins will channel all of the negative talk towards them this week. WASH 30-21

New York Giants (0-2) (-1) at Carolina (0-2) 12:00 pm (FOX) - Both teams in desperate need for a win. If the Panthers lose again, Ron Rivera's seat will get extremely hot. If the Giants lose, we can start up the 'Fire Tom Coughlin' columns for the 904th time which let's be honest would be fun.  The Giants are struggling as a team whether it be with turnovers or their defense being average at best. This will be an unexpected shootout. Eli Manning and Cam Newton both have the opportunity to have major games this week as the defensive backfield of both teams does not look great. I will trust Manning and Coughlin in a late game situation more so than Rivera who is basically as trustworthy as a three dollar bill. NYG 38-34

Houston (2-0) at Baltimore (1-1) (-2.5) 12:00 pm (CBS) - If there is a game where I will tell you to 'Lock it up', it is strangely Baltimore. I am not buying into anything Houston is selling right now. The Texans escaped two games with two great fourth quarters, that's it. I do not know if Baltimore will allow such a thing. Sure, this has not been the best start for the defending Super Bowl champs, but this is the game where everyone starts to come together for them. BALT 28-13

Atlanta (1-1) at Miami (2-0) (-3) 3:05 pm (FOX) - This is a Katy Perry 'Hot and Cold' game for me. I am hot on Miami. I know they do not play well at home, but the Dolphins look like the real deal this year with a tough defense plus Ryan Tannehill keeps doing good things. I am cold on Atlanta. They have a ton of key injuries with Sean Weatherspoon, Kroy Biermann and Steven Jackson. Matt Ryan can only do so much and their defense does not really surprise anybody. I will take the Dolphins in a solid win. MIA 21-16

Buffalo (1-1) at New York Jets (1-1) (-3) 3:25 pm (CBS) - Maybe I am alone here, but it is weird to see both these teams .500 with a legitimate thought they could be 2-1.  E.J. Manuel and Geno Smith are also taking center stage against each other. The Jets and Bills actually play more defense than people give them credit for and we will see it displayed, overshadowing the Smith/Manuel matchup for most of the game. I will take the Bills because it would not truly be an NFL season if Buffalo did not start off blazing hot. BUFF 16-13

Indianapolis (1-1) at San Francisco (1-1) (-10) 3:25 pm (CBS) - Indianapolis did add Trent Richardson but this team has some problems right now. Their offensive line is a mess and hearing that before facing San Francisco on the road is probably not a good thing. Additionally, I expect Colin Kaepernick to do a lot more running this week as the Colts struggled with Terrelle Pryor ability to get out into space. The Niners will roll in this one. SF 30-14

Jacksonville (0-2) at Seattle (2-0) (-19) 3:25 pm (CBS) - There is no way Seattle is covering this spread. I realize the Seahawks can put up points with offense, defense and special teams, but Gus Bradley, the Jaguars head coach did coach the Seahawks defense, he knows them a little bit better than Las Vegas is giving him credit for.  Seattle will win this game, but in no way, do they cover this spread. SEA 35-20

Chicago (2-0) (-3) at Pittsburgh (0-2) 7:30 pm NBC - The Steelers need this win badly, but I just do not know what this offense can really do right now. I would love to tell you Pittsburgh is going to come in there and reverse their fortune but I cannot. Chicago's offense looked like a well-oiled machine in the first two games plus they have a secondary that can create some nightmares for Ben Roethlisberger.  I am not picking Pittsburgh until they show me something.  CHI 24-14

Oakland (1-1) at Denver (2-0) (-15) 7:40 pm ESPN - Peyton Manning on Monday Night Football is like a fine wine or a good bourbon. You just know it will be smooth, clean and great. Denver rolls again and gets 40 again. DEN 45-17

Straight up: 23-9
ATS: 14-18 (Complete newbie central here)

Charlie.

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32 in 31: Indianapolis Colts

Another year of 32 for 31, Sports News on Tap takes the month of August to preview the National Football League. We spend every day of the month looking at a new team and how they will fare in 2013. 

Indianapolis was the place of the feel-good story of the NFL season. The Colts found out new head coach Chuck Pagano had cancer in the fourth week of the season. The team used his horrible situation as a motivating point and started winning games rallying behind the 'Chuckstrong' mentality. Pagano returned to the team late in the season and the team found its way to the playoffs. This year will definitely be different for the Colts, but the attitude of Chuckstrong is still with the team as Pagano keeps kicking cancer's ass.   

OFFENSE
The second year of Andrew Luck should have people excited for what's upcoming from him, but it should also come with a giant WARNING sign. There is a chance Luck might see some regression next year and that's perfectly okay.  He is a young quarterback and it is expected he will take some bumps throughout his career. Although having his college offensive coordinator, Pep Hamilton now running the offense should help limit the slump if there is any, who knows Luck could come out and prove me wrong as many people have done before him. One thing to watch during training camp and preseason is Luck's offensive line. The Colts added a ton through free agency and the NFL draft, but with all the moving pieces, it leaves the possibility for everyone to not be on the same page as they allowed Luck to be sacked 41 times last season.

The player to probably watch on the Colts offense this year is T.Y. Hilton, the second-year player out of Florida International.  Hilton is having a great training camp thus far and the hype for him is getting massive from all corners of the Internet. Hilton could be the perfect compliment to Reggie Wayne.  Speaking of Wayne, there should always be worry for some regression, but Wayne has shown time and again to not be doubted whatsoever.

DEFENSE
For as good as the Colts were in 2012, people probably ignored they had a pretty poor defense. They were one of the worst teams against the rush as teams averaged 137.9 yards a game, third-worst in the league. It was an obvious emphasis for the Colts this offseason getting Aubrayo Franklin from the San Diego and Ricky Jean Francois from San Francisco. One reason for the Colts' struggles on defense might have been due to many leftover Colts players from the Jim Caldwell era making the transition from 4-3 to 3-4 defense which is extremely difficult. Robert Mathis and Pat Angerer will definitely be looking for redemption this year.

Maybe I am alone on this, but I was not wild on the Colts getting LaRon Landry. The only real positive is they have the real life Hulk in Indianapolis. Landry can lay the lumber, but he really does not have what it takes to be the impact player that Colts are hoping for in their secondary.

SPECIAL TEAMS
Adam Vinatieri is still playing football... Good for him. I honestly thought he left the game last year or this offseason but he is back again for another year to my surprise. The Colts also have  Pat McAfee is punting for them again. Hilton could also be a dymanic retuner for them.  

KEY ADDITIONS
S LaRon Landry, NT Aubrayo Franklin, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, OT Gosder Cherlius, LB Erik Walden, DT Ricky Jean Francois - DHB and T.Y. do the same thing on the field which provides us with more proof Jim Irsay took mushrooms throughout the offseason.

KEY DEPARTURES
OLB Dwight Freeney, WR Donnie Avery, NT Antonio Johnson, LB Jerry Hughes, CB Jerraud Powers OT Winston Justice, S Tom Zibikowski

COLTS DRAFT PICKS
OLB Bjoern Werner, OG Hugh Thornton, C/OG Khaled Holmes, DT Montori Hughes, S John Boyett, RB Kerwynn Williams, TE Justice Cunningham - Werner could be a starter from day one and there is a huge amount of boom/bust potential with him.  I would keep an eye on Kerywnn Williams too.

GAME TO WATCH
Sunday October 20th: vs. Denver 7:30 pm -The return of Peyton Manning to Indianapolis. People will not make a big deal out of this, right?  Yeah probably not overblown or anything.

PREDICTION
8-10 wins - This team plays a tougher schedule than they do last year, but I believe Andrew Luck is good enough to bring this team close if not back to the playoffs. They will need to be better on defense with the elevated competition.

Charlie.

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