Tap's Fantasy Report: Week 2

TFR: Tap’s Fantasy Report Week One

Here at SnoTap, we will be helping you weekly throughout the football season. We will recap what happens each week on Tuesday, and also give you some advice on how to use these happenings to win your league. If you have any questions, put them in the comments below or email SnoTap12@gmail.com, and we will answer them in a future post.

Philip Rivers:  We discussed in the preseason that Philip Rivers is not a top level quarterback, and shouldn't be trusted in fantasy leagues anymore. He has had a huge first two weeks, forcing a lot of people to believe in him again. I may be wrong, but I’m still not buying it. San Diego has always been able to do weird things on the opening week Monday night game that nobody gets to watch, and the Eagles defense is shaky at best.  This may be confirmation bias, but I really don’t think Rivers can produce at this level all season, even though we've seen him do it before. I think he’s risen slightly from our preseason rankings, but he’s still not a starting caliber fantasy player. He’s a solid bye week fill-in, or backup that should be owned in every league, but don’t get crazy and start him over any other stud quarterbacks.

Stevan Ridley: I’m still high on Ridley, and if your league’s Ridley owner is freaking out, go ahead and try to acquire him. The Week 1 concern with Ridley was his fumbles, and Shane Vereen stealing his carries. The Week 2 concern is that he only ran for 40 yards. Looking at both games, I’m not concerned about any of this. Vereen is hurt, the Jets have an underrated run defense that was able to bottle up Doug Martin as well, and the Patriots are going to need Ridley to carry the ball a lot to be successful. The most important stat when it comes to Ridley is that he was able to get 16 carries in the Jets game. Moving forward, he’ll continue to get the ball, and he’ll start finding some yards and touchdowns.

Knowshon Moreno: In the preseason, we talked about avoiding the Denver running back situation, because there wasn't going to be much clarity. After two weeks, it’s now fairly clear what is happening in Denver and how you need to react. Moreno is someone that is going to be on the field a lot, and it’s clear Manning trusts him running the ball and with a few check downs, his upside is limited, but he’s a safe bet. Montee Ball still has the highest upside, but fumbles and pass protection might hinder in certain weeks. He needs to be owned still. Ronnie Hillman appears to be the odd man out until injuries happen, even at that point; I don’t see a lot of value there. Find which type of player you’d most like to own, and go after them.

Eddie Royal: Anybody who says they expected Royal to have 5 touchdowns in the first two weeks this season is lying to you.  Moving forward, it’s most important to determine Royal’s future value, as the vast majority of owners were not able to start Royal leading up to these games. Honestly, I don’t see Royal as having a ton of value long term, as the Chargers offense is likely to slow down a bit, but Royal is still getting a lot of points. There are other receivers who are available in many leagues that I would rather have, but Royal is a must add this week. Although his long term value is likely low, he has some good matchups the next four weeks, playing the Titans, Cowboys, Raiders, and Colts. He might be a good sell high candidate after that stretch.  

Julian Edelman: A lot is being made of the number of targets Julian Edelman got Thursday night against the Jets. With Danny Amendola getting injured again, it seems like there is some room in the slot in New England for someone to step up. Edelman doesn't have immense value in non-PPR leagues, because it doesn't seem like he’s getting deep targets or red-zone targets, but he’s a great depth receiver for your team, and should see some big point totals with all the targets he’s getting. Definitely a solid value moving forward, especially since he seems to be one of the very few receiving options that can hold on to the ball.

Martellus Bennett: I was wrong. Going into the season, I didn't get all the Bennett love, we've been waiting for years for his potential to come through, and we've been waiting for years for a Bears tight end to actually produce. It seemed like Hype-Heaven, where players get big contracts but don’t produce, it seemed like an easy bust selection. I was wrong, he’s got a lot of talent, that the Bears are taking advantage of. He’s a break out tight end, in a year where a lot of tight ends are putting up some big points. If he’s available (he’s probably not) you have to scoop him up, because you’re not going to be able to trade for him.

Buy Low: Anquan Boldin, Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead (PPR only), Bryce Brown, Montee Ball, and Robert Griffin III

Sell High: DeSean Jackson and Michael Vick.

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Tap's Fantasy Report: Week 1

TFR: Tap’s Fantasy Report Week One

Here at SnoTap, we will be helping you weekly throughout the football season. We will recap what happens each week on Tuesday, and also give you some advice on how to use these happenings to win your league. If you have any questions, put them in the comments below or email SnoTap12@gmail.com, and we will answer them in a future post.

Terrelle Pryor-Pryor was mentioned in our Free Agent Finds article, and while we missed on some guys, the logic we used for Pryor came true Week 1. Pryor is not going destroy the NFL for this throwing ability, his goal in that department should be to improve each week, and hopefully create a successful career for himself. In Week 1 against the Colts, he was able to add 112 rushing yards to his passing statistics. His athletic and rushing ability is what makes Pryor fantasy relevant, as well as the lack of serious threat at the quarterback position (sorry Matt Flynn). It should be noted, that the Colts defense is not one of the league’s strongest, (Erick Walden specifically has proven he can’t chase down running quarterbacks, tough post for former Packers) so there are going to be a few rough games in Pryor’s future. Pick him up as a stash option if you can, as he will have some games where he will be a quality starting quarterback, but if you have a reliable top QB, don’t waste a high waiver claim or a lot of FAB money on him. If you already own him, and someone is offering you someone you might start in return, jump on that deal quickly.

Reggie Bush- Yes, Bush lost two scores that he seemingly earned, but he looked like a complete stud, and it looked like the Lions are finally going to be the team to use him to his full potential. He seemed a lot faster than anyone else on the field, and brought a good rushing and receiving threat. This is exactly what owners who drafted Bush were hoping for. However, this is Reggie Bush, all of our preseason concerns are still there, including injuries, which he battled during this game. If you are able to swing Bush for an under performing top 15 back, perhaps a fellow team panicking on Doug Martin or CJ Spiller, pull the trigger. Bush’s value is never going to be higher, he has a chance for a monster year, but he has a chance to break your heart.

David Wilson-If you own David Wilson, take a deep breath. You went through a tough Week 1, but it will get better. Yes, he was benched due to fumbles, but he had fumbling problems at the beginning of last year, and Tom Coughlin had the same type of issues with Tiki Barber. Wilson will get another chance, likely in Week 2, to redeem himself. He will be motivated, and he has a ton of talent still. If Andre Brown didn’t have a broken leg, Wilson would be in more trouble, but the Giants have nobody else. The opportunity is there. Don’t trade him yet if you drafted him, you won’t get value in return, but if you don’t own him, see if the Wilson owner is panicking yet.

Julian Edelman­-Edelman stepped up in the Patriots lack of playmakers, and caught 7 passes for 79 yards and two touchdowns. This is one of the tougher players to get a read on, as he has flashed potential in the past, and has an awesome quarterback throwing to him, but he also has an injury history, and has a difficult to predict offense.  He is likely owned in a lot of leagues, but if he is on the free agent wire, the time to act is now. There are better targets to go after this week, but Edelman will be a good consolation prize as the waiver order processes. If he is already owned in your league, wait a bit longer to see if this is for real or not, it’s still too tough to tell.

Anquan Boldin­-If I was cooler, like Charlie, I’d have a better way to say that Boldin tore up the Packers secondary, but I’m here for my stat-nerdness, not my cool factor, so that will have to do. If you own Boldin, sell high, sell high, sell high. A lot was made of the Packers inability to stop Boldin, and you have to give him all the credit in the world, but that is not a typical 49ers game plan. For the rest of the season, San Fran will pick up more yards on the ground, and they will face a few more teams with larger defensive backs. Boldin was able to dominate due to his size.  Due to these factors, Boldin will have a decent, but not great year. If there is someone overvaluing him, take advantage of it.

Julius Thomas-Since the game was on Thursday, it has calmed down slightly, but people were losing their mind over Thomas’ performance against the Ravens, and it was deserved. Two of the three tight ends in our Free Agent Find post had huge weeks (Thomas, Jordan Cameron) and one was an absolute dud (Zach Sudfeld). If you were smart enough to pick up Thomas before Week 1, sell high now if you can get a good deal. He still has injury history, there are still a lot of targets in that Denver offense, and they won’t put up that many points each week. If you can get a starter at running back or wide receiver, pull the trigger.

Each week, we will discuss some buy low and sell high candidates. We’ll explain our general rules for these categories since it’s Week 1. Everyone should always be available for trade on your team, don’t fall too in love with any individual player, as if someone offers you a ridiculous value, you should take it. The buy low and sell high designations are reserved for when the general public in a league is likely overrating or underrating the value of specific players. A key to winning is identifying these situations and getting upgrades. That being said, don’t trade for, or trade away any of these players without winning the value proposition, unless it helps you position wise.

Buy Low Candidates: Marlon Brown, David Wilson, Lamar Miller, Stevan Ridley, Eddie Lacy, and Cecil Shorts

Sell High Candidates: Reggie Bush, Anquan Boldin, Julius Thomas, and Danny Amendola.

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