Fantasy RB Rankings Reaction

Earlier in the offseason, I posted my 2013 Fantasy Football Ranks, so that everyone could get prepared for the fantasy football season. If you missed those rankings, they are posted here.I asked for a lot of feedback, so I knew how to look more in depth at each individual. I won’t be writing about each individual player, instead I will look to spend more time on players that might represent more points for discussion. Charlie and Mitch were more than happy to toss some thoughts about my ranks on the August 14 Tapping the Keg Podcast, if you missed that, the link is here.I’ll use some of the players they mentioned, some players SnoTap contributor Bryan Reynolds mentioned, and players I think are points of discussion this offseason. If you there is anyone you disagree with my rankings on, as always send them to SnoTap12@gmail.com, and I’ll make sure to address it in the next column.

TE Rankings Reaction QB Rankings Reaction WR Rankings Reaction

#2 Marshawn Lynch- Lynch’s ranking says as much about all the other running backs this year than it does about him. I view Lynch as the safest among the players that are in contention for the number 2 slot (Foster, Rice, Charles, Martin, Spiller). Yes Lynch is getting slightly older, and there is some chance for some younger guys to steal a few carries, but Lynch is vital to what Seattle does on offense, and despite their acquisition of Percy Harvin in the offseason, the Seahawks will have to center their offense around the rushing attack again. If I’m picking for upside, Lynch slides down the list, but if I’m picking someone I want to make sure doesn’t fall out of the top 10, Lynch holds the number 2 slot.

#4 Ray Rice- I’m nowhere near as concerned about Ray Rice as everyone else seems to be. A lot of people are talking that Rice will have a down year due to being worked too much the previous seasons and the emergence of Bernard Pierce. While I do like Pierce as a value later in drafts, I see him having value independent of taking value away from Rice. The Ravens have gone through a lot of change in the offseason, and while Joe Flacco just got paid, I believe Ray Rice might be their best player. When a team has to adjust its identity, they’ll make sure to focus on their best players. I think Rice will get a good, but not overwhelming amount of carries this season, but more importantly will catch the ball out of the backfield a lot, as Flacco’s new security blanket on passing plays.

#6 Doug Martin- One of two things is going to happen to Doug Martin this year: he is going to be a top-4 back, that allows many to win their league for taking a chance on him, or he will not produce up to expectations and be the focus of many negative fantasy articles throughout the season. (Remember this sentence, it’ll look familiar soon). I’m a big fan of Martin this year, I’ve gone out of my way to trade for him in my important keeper league, but he’s definitely still a risk. I’ve seen people want him as their second best running back, behind only Adrian Peterson, but that’s a bit too high for me. I still have my concerns. Martin could easily fall victim to injuries, a sophomore jinx, or a slightly overrated end of season ranking, based too much on his monstrous performance against the Oakland Raiders.

#7 CJ Spiller- One of two things is going to happen to CJ Spiller this year: he is going to be a top-4 back, that allows many to win their league for taking a chance on him, or he will not produce up to expectations and be the focus of many negative fantasy articles throughout the season.  Much like Martin, I’ve gone out of my way to trade for in my important keeper league, but he’s definitely also a risk. Much has been made about Spiller getting all the carries and touches now in the Buffalo offense, but I’m not sure that’s the best use of Spiller. Spiller was able to dominate the fantasy world mostly by focusing on his big play ability, similar to how Jamaal Charles began his career. I’m not sure that an increase in offensive touches impacts him as much as it would for other players. If Spiller lives up to expectations, he will dominate, but there are still concerns such as injuries, that make me somewhat cautious.

Young RBs- I’m generally someone who is okay waiting a year or two for a running back to prove themselves before having them land on my team, especially when the player in question has a lot of hype surrounding them. While David Wilson, Lamar Miller, Montee Ball, and Le’Veon Bell are all being called “sleepers,” the popularity of fantasy football has left enough people informed that it will be tough to get a good value on these players. For guys that could easily lose carries to other running backs on their team, it’s tough to count on them for a high draft pick. Would you rather spend a fourth/fifth round pick on these guys, or wait a few rounds and draft Ronnie Hillman, Andre Brown, or Isaac Redman, and still get a higher end wide receiver?  Young running backs are certainly helpful to a team; just make sure you are finding the right guys at the right value.

New Orleans Saints RBs- Darren Sproles is clearly the running back to own of this group, but if either Pierre Thomas or Mark Ingram gets injured, make sure to pick up the other. The Saints running game has been notoriously difficult to predict, since they carried four players on the roster that were worthy of carries. Now that Chris Ivory is in New York, there is some clarity to the position. Sproles will play a lot, and get a lot of catches out of the backfield, but now the majority of the rushing attempts will split between two potentially productive players, both also have injury concerns, which could make the other worth owning.

Backfields to Avoid-

Arizona Cardinals-Unless Rashard Mendenhall or Ryan Williams can separate themselves, this will be a frustrating team.

Indianapolis Colts- Ahmad Bradshaw is the better player, but will be injured at times leading him and Vick Ballard to be frustrating to own.

Carolina Panthers- This has been obvious from the last few seasons, tough to predict with DeAngelo Williams, Jonathon Stewart, Mike Tolbert, and Cam Newton all getting rushing attempts. 

Sometime next week, we'll look into some guys that won't get drafted in most leagues that should be watched closely, for when they eventually break out this year.

Adam

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32 in 31: Pittsburgh Steelers

Another year of 32 for 31, Sports News on Tap takes the month of August to preview the National Football League. We spend every day of the month looking at a new team and how they will fare in 2013. 

The Pittsburgh Steelers went .500 last year. They have missed the playoffs a couple times throughout the last 15 years, but rarely do they miss in back-to-back years. It has not happened since the late 90's.  The Steelers are a team with some old parts and some new parts hoping they will become a playoff team this year. Head coach Mike Tomlin does not seem like a coach to just let the team toil around in futility for a couple of years. He will definitely make adjustments to this team to ensure they are back in the playoffs.  Ben Roethlisberger finally seems healthy after all of these years battling different bruises and injuries throughout the last couple of years. 

OFFENSE
One of the bigger reasons why Roethlisberger suffered so many injuries throughout the last couple of years was due to his offensive linemen being a virtual turnstile. They now boast a very young, exciting offensive line. David DeCastro is healthy and many people are talking about how good he will be inside with Ramon Foster, the veteran of this unit in his fifth year.  They have the second year of Mike Adams and third year of Marcus Gilbert on the outside. Both were high draft picks and will definitely help Big Ben stay upright for the 2013 season.

Additionally, I think Roethlisberger's lack of receivers is completely overstated. Antonio Brown, Heath Miller (Injured) and Emmanuel Sanders are all three receivers who had over 700 yards.  Brown and Miller also had 65+ in receptions. Sure, he does not have his deep threat in Mike Wallace, but I would argue Brown/Sanders combined is basically one Wallace if that makes sense. The Steelers also added two receivers in the draft as well.  

There are some players who fit a certain team. Le'Veon Bell fits the Steelers. All the reports are good on him although I worry about his long-term stability with how many carries he already had in college (44 in one game!). Bell is the type of bruising running back the Steelers are known for and even if they are more a passing team, the Michigan State standout will provide them with a great secondary option attack on offense.

DEFENSE
Even though James Harrison and Casey Hampton are gone, the Steelers still have many of their mainstays on their defense with the likes of Brett Keisel, Lawrence Timmons, LaMarr Woodley, Ryan Clark, Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor. All six of those players still have something left in the tank especially Timmons. I think he could be a sneaky Defensive Player of the Year candidate. He is definitely underrated when it comes to linebackers. Further, they add Jarvis Jones from Georgia whom people predicted could have went as high as number two in the draft but people were scared of his spinal injuries. If Jones ends up having a Von Miller-like impact, the Steelers could have another vaunted and feared defense like they have so many times before.

The biggest concern has to be in the secondary. The three mentioned as good players still and compete, but they are not one the same level as they used to be. Taylor missed most of 2012, but remember in 2011 how much he struggled against vertical routes. Let's also not forget they lost Keenan Allen to New Orleans in the offseason meaning a lot of pressure will be on Cortez Allen or new free agent but former Steeler William Gay

SPECIAL TEAMS 
The Steelers always have troubles with kickers given the nature of Heinz Field, but Shaun Suisham had a great year for them last year. Drew Butler did not have a great rookie campaign and reason why they brought Brian Moorman in. The Steelers added LaRod Stephens-Howling to take back kicks as well as be a backup running back and I assume Antonio Brown will take back punts.

KEY ADDITIONS 
CB William Gay, QB Bruce Gradowksi, P Brian Moorman, TE Matt Spaeth, RB LaRod Stephens-Howling, T Guy Whimper - Two of these were former Steelers at some point, Pittsburgh living that good?

KEY DEPARTURES
LB James Harrison, NT Casey Hampton, CB Keenan Lewis, RB Rashard Mendenhall, OT Max Starks, WR Mike Wallace, S Will Allen, G Willie Colon

STEELERS DRAFT PICKS 
LB Jarvis Jones, RB Le'Veon Bell, WR Markus Wheaton, S Shamarko Thomas, QB Landry Jones, CB Terry Hawthorne, WR Justin Brown, LB Vince Williams, DT Nick Williams - Even though Clark/Polamalu are some of the best in the business, Thomas could be a stud for a long time for the Steelers  

GAME TO WATCH 
Sunday December 15th - vs. Cincinnati Bengals 7:30 pm - Huge game probably in mid-December with road game in Green Bay looming the next week and also the fact they could be fighting for a playoff spot.

PREDICTION
10-12 wins - I am so serious about this team. The Steelers have a wealth of young talent ranging from draft picks this year to drafts from the last couple of years with the veterans, Pittsburgh could be truly successful this year and might be fringe Super Bowl contender.

Charlie.

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