Tap's Fantasy Report: Week 2

TFR: Tap’s Fantasy Report Week One

Here at SnoTap, we will be helping you weekly throughout the football season. We will recap what happens each week on Tuesday, and also give you some advice on how to use these happenings to win your league. If you have any questions, put them in the comments below or email SnoTap12@gmail.com, and we will answer them in a future post.

Philip Rivers:  We discussed in the preseason that Philip Rivers is not a top level quarterback, and shouldn't be trusted in fantasy leagues anymore. He has had a huge first two weeks, forcing a lot of people to believe in him again. I may be wrong, but I’m still not buying it. San Diego has always been able to do weird things on the opening week Monday night game that nobody gets to watch, and the Eagles defense is shaky at best.  This may be confirmation bias, but I really don’t think Rivers can produce at this level all season, even though we've seen him do it before. I think he’s risen slightly from our preseason rankings, but he’s still not a starting caliber fantasy player. He’s a solid bye week fill-in, or backup that should be owned in every league, but don’t get crazy and start him over any other stud quarterbacks.

Stevan Ridley: I’m still high on Ridley, and if your league’s Ridley owner is freaking out, go ahead and try to acquire him. The Week 1 concern with Ridley was his fumbles, and Shane Vereen stealing his carries. The Week 2 concern is that he only ran for 40 yards. Looking at both games, I’m not concerned about any of this. Vereen is hurt, the Jets have an underrated run defense that was able to bottle up Doug Martin as well, and the Patriots are going to need Ridley to carry the ball a lot to be successful. The most important stat when it comes to Ridley is that he was able to get 16 carries in the Jets game. Moving forward, he’ll continue to get the ball, and he’ll start finding some yards and touchdowns.

Knowshon Moreno: In the preseason, we talked about avoiding the Denver running back situation, because there wasn't going to be much clarity. After two weeks, it’s now fairly clear what is happening in Denver and how you need to react. Moreno is someone that is going to be on the field a lot, and it’s clear Manning trusts him running the ball and with a few check downs, his upside is limited, but he’s a safe bet. Montee Ball still has the highest upside, but fumbles and pass protection might hinder in certain weeks. He needs to be owned still. Ronnie Hillman appears to be the odd man out until injuries happen, even at that point; I don’t see a lot of value there. Find which type of player you’d most like to own, and go after them.

Eddie Royal: Anybody who says they expected Royal to have 5 touchdowns in the first two weeks this season is lying to you.  Moving forward, it’s most important to determine Royal’s future value, as the vast majority of owners were not able to start Royal leading up to these games. Honestly, I don’t see Royal as having a ton of value long term, as the Chargers offense is likely to slow down a bit, but Royal is still getting a lot of points. There are other receivers who are available in many leagues that I would rather have, but Royal is a must add this week. Although his long term value is likely low, he has some good matchups the next four weeks, playing the Titans, Cowboys, Raiders, and Colts. He might be a good sell high candidate after that stretch.  

Julian Edelman: A lot is being made of the number of targets Julian Edelman got Thursday night against the Jets. With Danny Amendola getting injured again, it seems like there is some room in the slot in New England for someone to step up. Edelman doesn't have immense value in non-PPR leagues, because it doesn't seem like he’s getting deep targets or red-zone targets, but he’s a great depth receiver for your team, and should see some big point totals with all the targets he’s getting. Definitely a solid value moving forward, especially since he seems to be one of the very few receiving options that can hold on to the ball.

Martellus Bennett: I was wrong. Going into the season, I didn't get all the Bennett love, we've been waiting for years for his potential to come through, and we've been waiting for years for a Bears tight end to actually produce. It seemed like Hype-Heaven, where players get big contracts but don’t produce, it seemed like an easy bust selection. I was wrong, he’s got a lot of talent, that the Bears are taking advantage of. He’s a break out tight end, in a year where a lot of tight ends are putting up some big points. If he’s available (he’s probably not) you have to scoop him up, because you’re not going to be able to trade for him.

Buy Low: Anquan Boldin, Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead (PPR only), Bryce Brown, Montee Ball, and Robert Griffin III

Sell High: DeSean Jackson and Michael Vick.

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32 in 31: Chicago Bears

Another year of 32 in 31. Sports News on Tap takes the month of August to preview the National Football League. We spend every day of the month looking at a new team and how they will fare in 2013.

People say all the time, change is a good thing. Sometimes it is to convince yourself that the horrible breakup you just suffered is actually okay and life will get better when truly you are mess playing Mumford & Sons' first album with the shades down for the whole afternoon curled in the fetal position.  Other times, change really is a positive and can put a person or a team in our case in the right direction.

The Chicago Bears no longer have Lovie Smith in the saddle as head coach meaning the days of Aaron Rodgers tearing through a Cover 2 zone are probably gone as well as Lovie's explanations as to why the offensive line is not performing poorly.  Marc Trestmann is the new chief coming over from Montreal's CFL team and formerly an offensive coordinator in the NFL for a couple successful teams.  The Bears' change is a good one and they might be dangerous this season.

OFFENSE
Jay Cutler is in a contract year.  Like we said with Hakeem Nicks last week, this sometimes goes unnoticed when it comes to football players. Cutler is finally playing for a coach whose an offensive mind and not dealing a revolving door of offensive coordinators.  This might be the year where we see Cutler's numbers go leaps and bounds above what we are used to seeing from him. The interceptions have always been an issue for Cutler, but I feel like most people should be at the point with him where it is expected versus trying to believe he will cut down on him.  Like Brett Favre, he is a gunslinger and sometimes takes unneseccary risks.

The offensive line looks as good as it has been in some time. They spent some money to get Jermon Bushrod from New Orleans giving them an actual left tackle, not just someone trying to look the part. They picked up Matt Slauson from the New York Jets, an offensive guard whom probably does not get the credit he deserves because he plays for the Jets.  They added Kyle Long in the draft and it appears like their only gloomy spot might be right tackle.  That's better than having three or four of the line position look like a mess.

The receiving core will be improved this year as well with the addition of Martellus Bennett. He had a breakout year for the New York Giants last season and there is no reason to believe it will not continue in Chicago. Easily, the one guy I was actually upset he went to a rival team. I love me some Marty Bennett.   Bennett, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are complete nightmares to teams with small secondaries as all three of the men are at least 6'3 in height. I assume we will see many vertical routes and jump balls for these receivers.  

DEFENSE
Brian Urlacher is missing from this defense as he retired in the offseason.  This is not an earth-shattering move for the team as the Bears looked better on defense without the future Hall of Famer. His leadership will be missed, sure, but his actual play declined in the final years of his career. Their linebackers are not much to write home about though. D.J. Williams, a signee from Denver, has struggled injury and legal troubles throughout his NFL career. James Anderson is a fine player, but nothing special.  Lance Briggs is an esteemed linebacker, but his fastball seems in decline as well.

The rest of the defense though is stellar.  Henry Melton and Julius Peppers on the defensive line are two of the best in the business. Melton like Cutler is in a contract year and you would figure a big season is probably the goal.  Corey Wootoon was a serviceable defensive end playing opposite of Peppers as he had seven sacks last season.  Their secondary is great led by Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings. Both of those players can change a game with their ability to force turnovers.

SPECIAL TEAMS
Robbie Gould is still the kicker and probably will be until I am 50 years old. Adam Podlesh still punting the ball for the Bears.  Devin Hester lost a step last season in the return game, and usually when that happens, it does not come back, ask Dante Hall.  

KEY ADDITIONS
TE Martellus Bennett, OT Jermon Bushrod, OG Matt Slauson, LB D.J. Williams, S Tom Zbikowski - Touched on almost all except for Zbikowski, a Chicago native and former Notre Dame player. I will bet money there will be more Zbikowski jerseys popping up at Soldier Field than anyone probably believes there to be.  

KEY SUBTRACTIONS
LB Brian Urlacher, TE Kellen Davis, DE Israel Idonije, OG Lance Louis, CB D.J. Moore, TE Matt Spaeth, LB Geno Hayes

BEARS DRAFT PICKS
OG Kyle Long, LB Jon Bostic, OLB Khaseem Greene, OT Jordan Mills, DE Cornelius Washington, WR Marquess Wilson - Bostic and Greene could be impact players right out the gate and Wilson could be a dangerous forth wide receiver.

GAME TO WATCH
Monday December 9th - vs. Dallas 7:40 pm - Here's my thinking with this game. They play in December and both, I figure to be playoff contending teams.  They will need this win for the division and NFC standings plus it could be a tiebreaker by the end of the year.

WIN TOTAL 
10-12 - Yup, I think the Bears will be a playoff team and they have an outside shot at winning the division. Cutler will be scary good this year and maybe be a fringe MVP candidate plus their defense will force enough turnovers creating a 'bend not break' D.  

Charlie.

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Fantasy TE Rankings Reaction

Earlier in the offseason, I posted my 2013 Fantasy Football Ranks, so that everyone could get prepared for the fantasy football season. If you missed those rankings, they are posted here.I asked for a lot of feedback, so I knew how to look more in depth at each individual. I won’t be writing about each individual player, instead I will look to spend more time on players that might represent more points for discussion. Charlie and Mitch were more than happy to toss some thoughts about my ranks on the August 14 Tapping the Keg Podcast, if you missed that, the link is here.I’ll use some of the players they mentioned, some players SnoTap contributor Bryan Reynolds mentioned, and players I think are points of discussion this offseason. If you there is anyone you disagree with my rankings on, as always send them to SnoTap12@gmail.com, and I’ll make sure to address it in the next column.

QB Rankings Reaction

#6 Rob Gronkowski- Mitch said on the podcast that he thinks Gronk is a little too high because he is hurt. I agree with Mitch’s thought process, that it’ll be tough to own Gronk, while trying to deal with all of the injuries that are going to derail him at the start of the season, and then again injuries that will likely coming up once he returns. The fact of the matter is, when Gronkowski is playing, he is the number one or two fantasy option at tight end. If your league has an injured reserve slot, pick up Gronk, stash him on injured reserve, and either draft a tight end late, or pick one up in free agency. There are tons of tight ends that won’t be drafted in your league that can bridge the gap until Gronk plays, look for players like Jordan Cameron, Rob Housler, and Zach Sudfeld are going to be passed up for players with more name value, that aren’t likely to produce like those three will. Moral of the story, take the chance on Gronk, and sign one of those three to fill his spot.

#8 Kyle Rudolph- Rudolph was a fantasy savior last year for many owners who were looking for help at tight end when their draft picks working out. Christian Ponder clearly felt comfortable looking for Rudolph in the red zone, where his huge frame helped him get a lot of touchdowns. The problem for people that owned Rudolph was there was not a lot of fantasy value that he brought outside of touchdowns. As many owners know, predicting which week someone is going to score a touchdown is a maddening experience. So while Rudolph was able to rack up a lot of cumulative points last season, there is a good chance that many teams did not benefit from those points, due to the fact he was so inconsistent. Draft Rudolph at your own risk.

#11 Brandon Myers- Myers is moving to New York, to replace Martellus Bennett. Myers was a great in season pickup for fantasy players last season, as players were able to capitalize on the large number of targets Myers got from Carson Palmer. The Giants aren’t known for targeting their tight ends often, as Bennett found out after a few good weeks early in the season last year. While Myers did produce in Oakland, and is getting an upgrade at quarterback, I’m not sure he will produce to the same level in New York, where players such as Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Reuben Randle are going to be around for Eli Manning. If Tom Coughlin works Myers into the game plan often, he could be a steal in drafts, but he could also be a disappointment if he doesn’t get a high volume of passes thrown his way.

#13 Jared Cook-Cook has been a very popular “sleeper” this year, since he is moving to a new system that looks to use him more than his final season in Tennessee. Cook’s greatest season did come while playing for Jeff Fisher, and he could get some great opportunities to succeed in St. Louis. It is tough to but a lot of faith in him however, as it seems like he never fully becomes the player we expect him to be. If he is able to reach his potential, he could be a dominant tight end, but are we sure that he will do that with Sam Bradford as his quarterback?

#14 Martellus Bennett-Many are choosing Bennett to have a great season, based off of his potential and the Bears constant need for a tight end. I know the Bears are going to have a new coach and offensive scheme this year, but they have traditionally been a team that does not use the tight end often. It  seems like year after year we are waiting for Bennett to start producing, and year after year we are waiting for a Bears tight end to be a sleeper. In my mind, combining those to situations does not equal a starting tight end. He’s good to have as a backup in case he breaks out, but make sure you have other options. 

Check back tomorrow as we look at the wide receiver position.

Adam

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SnoTap Buzz: Friday August 2nd

I could watch Robin Thicke, The Roots and Jimmy Fallon signing 'Blurred Lines' with elementary instruments all day long.

Kansas City Chiefs 2012 first round pick Dontari Poe, a defensive tackle, quits eating barbecue and loses 20 pounds. When you live Kansas City, I have no idea how that's possible. There is a zero chance I could do that. (Sporting News) 

Everyone in Detroit Lions camp are getting excited about 'Kickalicious' their kicker from Norway. I hope he makes the team, but it will be weird not seeing Jason Hanson kicking meaningless field goals against the Packers. (NFL.com) 

Here's Kyle Scott, the creator of Crossing Broad, talking about blogging, buying and releasing the Riley Cooper tape.  I always wonder what would happen if I am offered something like this about a Wisconsin athlete. I have no idea honestly, it would all depend. (Crossing Broad) 

The Chicago Bears are so lucky to have Martellus Bennett for his skills and also his demeanor. He is completely out there, but it makes him so great. (MMQB) 

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