Fantasy QB Rankings Reaction

Earlier in the offseason, I posted my 2013 Fantasy Football Ranks, so that everyone could get prepared for the fantasy football season. If you missed those rankings, they are posted here.I asked for a lot of feedback, so I knew how to look more in depth at each individual. I won’t be writing about each individual player, instead I will look to spend more time on players that might represent more points for discussion. Charlie and Mitch were more than happy to toss some thoughts about my ranks on the August 14 Tapping the Keg Podcast, if you missed that, the link is here.I’ll use some of the players they mentioned, some players SnoTap contributor Bryan Reynolds mentioned, and players I think are points of discussion this offseason. If you there is anyone you disagree with my rankings on, as always send them to SnoTap12@gmail.com, and I’ll make sure to address it in the next column.

#6 Andrew Luck- For many, Andrew Luck is the least exciting of the four young quarterbacks who burst onto the scene last year. This is going to lead to Luck being undervalued. Yes, Luck does not have the flat out speed that the other three possess that add to their fantasy value, but Indianapolis used him in short yardage situations last season, and he did get 5 rushing touchdowns. That number is likely to go down, but I think he is the safest bet of the four to see his passing numbers go up. Luck was good last year, but also threw a lot of interceptions and made rookie mistakes. He’s a smart guy, he’s going to figure out what defenses are doing to him, and he’s my pick to break out a bit this year. Draft him, and keep him as your only quarterback, he’s going to be a top passer for years to come.

#7 Matt Ryan- Outside of Rodgers/Brees, I think Matt Ryan is the safest QB on the board. He has a glut of elite targets at his disposal with Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez. However, with how amazing last season was, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of room for improvement, which contributes to keeping the ranking at 7. Barring injury, he’s a safe bet to finish in the top 10 of quarterbacks, but is unlikely to break through the ceiling and get in the top 5. If Ryan is your target, you can wait awhile to draft him, and focus on other positions, while still getting consistent scoring.

#8 Russell Wilson- Number 8 might be too high for Wilson, but he straight up dominated the second half of the fantasy season, after the Seahawks started running more read option plays in their offense. A lot has been made about the loss of Percy Harvin, who was presumed to be Wilson’s new number one target. The key to that is the word new however, as Wilson will be returning many of the same targets he had last season. If Wilson can continue the momentum he had at the end of last season, he will continue to provide excellent depth to the quarterback position.

#9 Colin Kaepernick-Kaepernick was one of the hardest quarterbacks to rank this season. He broke out during the second half of the season, and showed the peak of his ability against the Packers in the postseason, where fantasy points don’t count. However, he lost his number one option, Michael Crabtree, for the season. The pure potential makes him an attractive option, but the uncertainty keeps him from being an upper-echelon starter. The 9^th ranking makes him a low-end starter in smaller leagues, but he has perhaps the widest range of outcomes for his season. He will either be a top-5 quarterback, or a bust in people’s eyes. If you end up with Kaepernick, try to back him up with someone like Eli Manning or Carson Palmer, two guys who won’t light the league on fire, but have the ability to put up some decent points as backups/bye-week fill-ins.

#11 Matthew Stafford- The Lions had a really weird season last year, one that caused Stafford to lead the NFL in attempts by a huge margin. This year, Detroit has added Reggie Bush to hopefully add a few more rushing attempts to Detroit’s gameplan. I believe the Lions also won’t be playing from behind as much this season, causing less pass attempts for Stafford as well. I think as an NFL player, Stafford will have a better season than last year, but as a fantasy quarterback he might dip a little bit. Stafford is a must own player, but not a high end starter.  I’d try to combine Stafford with a high risk backup, like Josh Freeman, in case he breaks out.

#15 Carson Palmer-You want to own Carson Palmer in your league.  Palmer was a fantasy stud back in his Bengals days, and was even able to have some fantasy success with a terrible team in Oakland. Now, Palmer finds himself in a pass first offense, with one of the best receivers in the game, solidifying one of the worst quarterback combos in the NFL in recent times. If Palmer is able to stay healthy, and get enough time to throw to Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona has enough other targets to insure he is productive. Palmer has top-10 upside in my mind, and can be had for a great value late in drafts. Make sure to pick him up.

#22 Phillip Rivers & #23 Matt Schaub- On the podcast, Mitch and Charlie mentioned that they wouldn’t go near Rivers or Schaub, and I absolutely agree. These are two names that might get drafted near the end of your draft by someone who is looking for name value only. Both of these guys were weak last year, and should be free agents in most leagues. I only view 16-18 QBs as guys who need to be owned the whole season, and Rivers and Schaub do not make that list. If you need a fill-in, these guys could prove their value, but both do not put up enough consistent passing numbers to warrant serious consideration. If you are looking for an end of the draft quarterback, opt instead for someone like Ryan Tannehill, who is young enough to potentially experience a jump in points. 

Check back tomorrow, as we look at the tight end position.

Adam

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32 in 31: Houston Texans

Another year of 32 for 31, Sports News on Tap takes the month of August to preview the National Football League. We spend every day of the month looking at a new team and how they will fare in 2013. 

It is hard to quantify how important a season to a collective team. The Houston Texans won the AFC South and went to the divisional round of the playoffs losing to the New England Patriots.  Both of those were massive steps in the young franchise's history and the thought is they want to take it to the next level in an AFC where it is completely wide open. There might not be a better time than now for the Texans to make it to their first Super Bowl, but will they have enough to complete one of the hardest tasks in professional sports?  

OFFENSE
It starts and ends with Arian Foster.  There are people concerned about Foster for the 2013 season though.'Curse of 370 carries' when discussing running backs and how it effects their long-term success; Foster nearly reached that number last season. There needs to be more of an emphasis with the Texans to spread the wealth around their offense this year even if Foster is clearly the best player on this team.  He is definitely been a workhorse running back for the past couple of years with his carries hitting at all-time high last year with 352.  Many people worry about the

Matt Schaub has been the Texans quarterback since 2007 and while he did throw for 4,000 yards last season, he did not have an impactful season. He only threw 22 touchdowns and had a 90.7 quarterback rating which is an all-time starting low for Schaub. If he has another 'so-so' year, the Texans might start looking for another quarterback given the former Virginia quarterback is not getting any younger (Currently, 32 years of age).

Schaub gets an added weapon next season with Nuke Hopkins out of Clemson and he could be a Rookie of the Year candidate to watch.  Hopkins will be able to spread the field and provide a deep outlet for Schaub when Andre Johnson is not open.  Speaking of Johnson, he had a bounce back year with limited injuries. As he is getting up there in age, who knows if he can repeat that this upcoming year, but if he does, the Texans might really have something on the outside.  

DEFENSE
As the offense, starts and ends with Arian Foster, the same can be said for the Texans defense with J.J. Watt. He had a breakout year last season leading people to believe he will be the next great defensive end, but his apparent elbow injury would have me somewhat concerned if I were a Texans fan. Watt will be wearing a brace most of the season and that could limit his ability to breakthrough the offensive line. Trust me, not having an arm with full range of motion for a lineman is truly a pain in the ass.

The Texans had major secondary problems last year as the Texans looked like burnt toast for the majority of the season. Houston hopes that it was just a bad season and they will return to form in 2013. They also added Ed Reed from Baltimore giving the secondary its most vocal leader.  There are definite concerns about Reed's health, but if he is able to be a playmaker, he could really impact the Texans defense in a positive manner.  

SPECIAL TEAMS
They added Shane Lechler and he will do absolute wonders for them in terms of field possesion. Lechler boomed punts with the Raiders with a majority of his games outdoors. Now he gets the luxury of playing in a retractable roof stadium for eight games out of the year. He will be great for them.

KEY ADDITIONS
S Ed Reed, FB Greg Jones, P Shane Lechler -We already discussed Reed and Lechler, Jones is a nice fullback option who can carry the ball now and again.

KEY DEPARTURES
LB Connor Barwin, FB/TE James Casey, LB Bradie James, S Glover Quin, CB Stanford Routt, LB Barrett Ruud, WR Kevin Walter.

TEXANS DRAFT PICKS
WR DeAndre 'Nuke' Hopkins, S D.J. Swearinger, OT Brennan Williams, OLB Sam Montgomery, OLB Trevardo Williams, OT David Quessenberry, WR Alan Bonner, NT Chris Jones, TE Ryan Griffin

I personally love Swearinger will learn under Reed. He is one of the hardest hitters out of the draft and will probably be fined by the NFL before November. Also don't sleep on Montgomery, if he figures his work ethic out, watch out.  

GAME TO WATCH
Sunday December 1st: vs. New England 3:25 pm - The Texans are calling this their 'homecoming' game after everyone overreacted to them wearing letterman jackets to New England last year for a Monday night game. Let's hope this does not spark a trend in the NFL because homecoming games are for college and high school. Given last year, it is still the biggest game on their schedule.

PREDICTION
9-11 wins - Let me be clear, I think nine is probably too low although I feel the ceiling is eleven if that's makes any sense. The Texans should win the AFC South again this year. I am betting on an improved year from Schaub and Foster to stay consistent. Additionally, Reed is a great addition to the team plus they had a good draft.

Charlie.

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