Tap's Fantasy Report: Week 2

TFR: Tap’s Fantasy Report Week One

Here at SnoTap, we will be helping you weekly throughout the football season. We will recap what happens each week on Tuesday, and also give you some advice on how to use these happenings to win your league. If you have any questions, put them in the comments below or email SnoTap12@gmail.com, and we will answer them in a future post.

Philip Rivers:  We discussed in the preseason that Philip Rivers is not a top level quarterback, and shouldn't be trusted in fantasy leagues anymore. He has had a huge first two weeks, forcing a lot of people to believe in him again. I may be wrong, but I’m still not buying it. San Diego has always been able to do weird things on the opening week Monday night game that nobody gets to watch, and the Eagles defense is shaky at best.  This may be confirmation bias, but I really don’t think Rivers can produce at this level all season, even though we've seen him do it before. I think he’s risen slightly from our preseason rankings, but he’s still not a starting caliber fantasy player. He’s a solid bye week fill-in, or backup that should be owned in every league, but don’t get crazy and start him over any other stud quarterbacks.

Stevan Ridley: I’m still high on Ridley, and if your league’s Ridley owner is freaking out, go ahead and try to acquire him. The Week 1 concern with Ridley was his fumbles, and Shane Vereen stealing his carries. The Week 2 concern is that he only ran for 40 yards. Looking at both games, I’m not concerned about any of this. Vereen is hurt, the Jets have an underrated run defense that was able to bottle up Doug Martin as well, and the Patriots are going to need Ridley to carry the ball a lot to be successful. The most important stat when it comes to Ridley is that he was able to get 16 carries in the Jets game. Moving forward, he’ll continue to get the ball, and he’ll start finding some yards and touchdowns.

Knowshon Moreno: In the preseason, we talked about avoiding the Denver running back situation, because there wasn't going to be much clarity. After two weeks, it’s now fairly clear what is happening in Denver and how you need to react. Moreno is someone that is going to be on the field a lot, and it’s clear Manning trusts him running the ball and with a few check downs, his upside is limited, but he’s a safe bet. Montee Ball still has the highest upside, but fumbles and pass protection might hinder in certain weeks. He needs to be owned still. Ronnie Hillman appears to be the odd man out until injuries happen, even at that point; I don’t see a lot of value there. Find which type of player you’d most like to own, and go after them.

Eddie Royal: Anybody who says they expected Royal to have 5 touchdowns in the first two weeks this season is lying to you.  Moving forward, it’s most important to determine Royal’s future value, as the vast majority of owners were not able to start Royal leading up to these games. Honestly, I don’t see Royal as having a ton of value long term, as the Chargers offense is likely to slow down a bit, but Royal is still getting a lot of points. There are other receivers who are available in many leagues that I would rather have, but Royal is a must add this week. Although his long term value is likely low, he has some good matchups the next four weeks, playing the Titans, Cowboys, Raiders, and Colts. He might be a good sell high candidate after that stretch.  

Julian Edelman: A lot is being made of the number of targets Julian Edelman got Thursday night against the Jets. With Danny Amendola getting injured again, it seems like there is some room in the slot in New England for someone to step up. Edelman doesn't have immense value in non-PPR leagues, because it doesn't seem like he’s getting deep targets or red-zone targets, but he’s a great depth receiver for your team, and should see some big point totals with all the targets he’s getting. Definitely a solid value moving forward, especially since he seems to be one of the very few receiving options that can hold on to the ball.

Martellus Bennett: I was wrong. Going into the season, I didn't get all the Bennett love, we've been waiting for years for his potential to come through, and we've been waiting for years for a Bears tight end to actually produce. It seemed like Hype-Heaven, where players get big contracts but don’t produce, it seemed like an easy bust selection. I was wrong, he’s got a lot of talent, that the Bears are taking advantage of. He’s a break out tight end, in a year where a lot of tight ends are putting up some big points. If he’s available (he’s probably not) you have to scoop him up, because you’re not going to be able to trade for him.

Buy Low: Anquan Boldin, Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead (PPR only), Bryce Brown, Montee Ball, and Robert Griffin III

Sell High: DeSean Jackson and Michael Vick.

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Fantasy RB Rankings Reaction

Earlier in the offseason, I posted my 2013 Fantasy Football Ranks, so that everyone could get prepared for the fantasy football season. If you missed those rankings, they are posted here.I asked for a lot of feedback, so I knew how to look more in depth at each individual. I won’t be writing about each individual player, instead I will look to spend more time on players that might represent more points for discussion. Charlie and Mitch were more than happy to toss some thoughts about my ranks on the August 14 Tapping the Keg Podcast, if you missed that, the link is here.I’ll use some of the players they mentioned, some players SnoTap contributor Bryan Reynolds mentioned, and players I think are points of discussion this offseason. If you there is anyone you disagree with my rankings on, as always send them to SnoTap12@gmail.com, and I’ll make sure to address it in the next column.

TE Rankings Reaction QB Rankings Reaction WR Rankings Reaction

#2 Marshawn Lynch- Lynch’s ranking says as much about all the other running backs this year than it does about him. I view Lynch as the safest among the players that are in contention for the number 2 slot (Foster, Rice, Charles, Martin, Spiller). Yes Lynch is getting slightly older, and there is some chance for some younger guys to steal a few carries, but Lynch is vital to what Seattle does on offense, and despite their acquisition of Percy Harvin in the offseason, the Seahawks will have to center their offense around the rushing attack again. If I’m picking for upside, Lynch slides down the list, but if I’m picking someone I want to make sure doesn’t fall out of the top 10, Lynch holds the number 2 slot.

#4 Ray Rice- I’m nowhere near as concerned about Ray Rice as everyone else seems to be. A lot of people are talking that Rice will have a down year due to being worked too much the previous seasons and the emergence of Bernard Pierce. While I do like Pierce as a value later in drafts, I see him having value independent of taking value away from Rice. The Ravens have gone through a lot of change in the offseason, and while Joe Flacco just got paid, I believe Ray Rice might be their best player. When a team has to adjust its identity, they’ll make sure to focus on their best players. I think Rice will get a good, but not overwhelming amount of carries this season, but more importantly will catch the ball out of the backfield a lot, as Flacco’s new security blanket on passing plays.

#6 Doug Martin- One of two things is going to happen to Doug Martin this year: he is going to be a top-4 back, that allows many to win their league for taking a chance on him, or he will not produce up to expectations and be the focus of many negative fantasy articles throughout the season. (Remember this sentence, it’ll look familiar soon). I’m a big fan of Martin this year, I’ve gone out of my way to trade for him in my important keeper league, but he’s definitely still a risk. I’ve seen people want him as their second best running back, behind only Adrian Peterson, but that’s a bit too high for me. I still have my concerns. Martin could easily fall victim to injuries, a sophomore jinx, or a slightly overrated end of season ranking, based too much on his monstrous performance against the Oakland Raiders.

#7 CJ Spiller- One of two things is going to happen to CJ Spiller this year: he is going to be a top-4 back, that allows many to win their league for taking a chance on him, or he will not produce up to expectations and be the focus of many negative fantasy articles throughout the season.  Much like Martin, I’ve gone out of my way to trade for in my important keeper league, but he’s definitely also a risk. Much has been made about Spiller getting all the carries and touches now in the Buffalo offense, but I’m not sure that’s the best use of Spiller. Spiller was able to dominate the fantasy world mostly by focusing on his big play ability, similar to how Jamaal Charles began his career. I’m not sure that an increase in offensive touches impacts him as much as it would for other players. If Spiller lives up to expectations, he will dominate, but there are still concerns such as injuries, that make me somewhat cautious.

Young RBs- I’m generally someone who is okay waiting a year or two for a running back to prove themselves before having them land on my team, especially when the player in question has a lot of hype surrounding them. While David Wilson, Lamar Miller, Montee Ball, and Le’Veon Bell are all being called “sleepers,” the popularity of fantasy football has left enough people informed that it will be tough to get a good value on these players. For guys that could easily lose carries to other running backs on their team, it’s tough to count on them for a high draft pick. Would you rather spend a fourth/fifth round pick on these guys, or wait a few rounds and draft Ronnie Hillman, Andre Brown, or Isaac Redman, and still get a higher end wide receiver?  Young running backs are certainly helpful to a team; just make sure you are finding the right guys at the right value.

New Orleans Saints RBs- Darren Sproles is clearly the running back to own of this group, but if either Pierre Thomas or Mark Ingram gets injured, make sure to pick up the other. The Saints running game has been notoriously difficult to predict, since they carried four players on the roster that were worthy of carries. Now that Chris Ivory is in New York, there is some clarity to the position. Sproles will play a lot, and get a lot of catches out of the backfield, but now the majority of the rushing attempts will split between two potentially productive players, both also have injury concerns, which could make the other worth owning.

Backfields to Avoid-

Arizona Cardinals-Unless Rashard Mendenhall or Ryan Williams can separate themselves, this will be a frustrating team.

Indianapolis Colts- Ahmad Bradshaw is the better player, but will be injured at times leading him and Vick Ballard to be frustrating to own.

Carolina Panthers- This has been obvious from the last few seasons, tough to predict with DeAngelo Williams, Jonathon Stewart, Mike Tolbert, and Cam Newton all getting rushing attempts. 

Sometime next week, we'll look into some guys that won't get drafted in most leagues that should be watched closely, for when they eventually break out this year.

Adam

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32 in 31: Denver Broncos

Another year of 32 in 31. Sports News on Tap takes the month of August to preview the National Football League. We spend every day of the month looking at a new team and how they will fare in 2013.

Denver Broncos had a typical Peyton Manning year. They have a great regular season and fall short in the playoffs. This is not a knock to Manning, rather he just seems to not be the same quarterback in the playoffs. This is a 'Do or Die' year for the Broncos. Manning is not getting any younger at age 37 and his window is likely closing quicker than other quarterbacks in the NFL. They play in a weak AFC West, but there will be a lot of challenges for the upcoming season.

OFFENSE
The Broncos made sure Manning would have more weapons this season as they signed Wes Welker. This could be football porn with the way Manning uses his slot receivers. Welker should have a direct impact on the Broncos offense creating major problems for opposing defense running around in the slot.  The other thing that should be exciting for Bronco fans is Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker could take their games to another level as they mature as pro athletes.

After adding Welker, the Broncos went to the draft and picked Montee Ball from Wisconsin. This is an interesting pick for the Broncos specifically because Ball reminds me of former Bronco Willis McGehee in terms of the way he runs the football but he is no a pass catcher.  At Wisconsin, Ball had one season where he had a big year catching the football with 24 receptions and 306 yards with six touchdowns.  While catching the ball is usually not the most important thing for a running back, not every quarterback in front of them is a Manning.

The biggest concern for the Broncos is their shaky interior line. They lost Dan Koppen for the season in training camp with an ACL injury meaning there is not a center who knows how to deal with Manning. He is a different bird with all of his audibles and it could really effect this team during the season. Manny Ramirez, no not that one, is going to be the first man up to the challenge. This could be an unnoticed problem for the Broncos this year.

DEFENSE
This defense took a hit when Elvis Dumervil went to their new rival Baltimore this offseason and then it is possible they will be losing their superstar linebacker Von Miller for six games for violating the substance-abuse policy. Miller is said to appeal meaning he might only lose four games, but even if the suspension is reduced, the Broncos defense will be completely lost without Miller.  He is an absolute game-changer whether it be rushing the quarterback or making a play in pass coverage. Now Shuan Phillips coming from San Diego might lighten the load on losing Miller, but the weakside linebacker looks like a complete wasteland.

I would also worry about the cornerback position this season. Adding Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will help, but I am not sure Champ Bailey will be the same player as he has been in years past. Bailey looked exposed in the playoff loss to Baltimore and it is really hard for me to fathom he will be a better player next season. Now Bailey is one of the best ever and it could have been just a bad stretch for him, but as we have seen with cornerbacks, if they lose it, they really lose it.  

SPECIAL TEAMS
One of the best in the the league with Matt Prater even if he has a ridiculous tattoo and Britton Colquitt. Both players can dictate a game for the Broncos. They also made one of the best free-agent signing mid-season acquiring Trinton Holiday to return kicks and punts.  

KEY ADDITIONS
WR Wes Welker, LB Stewart Bradley, LB Shaun Phillips, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, OG Louis Vasquez - We have touched on most of these players already but one we did not is Vasquez. He could be a very important part to the Broncos interior line staying together.

KEY SUBTRACTIONS
LB Elvis Dumervil, DT Justin Bannan, LB Keith Brooking, WR Brandon Stokley, LB DJ Williams

BRONCOS DRAFT PICKS
DT Slyvester Williams, RB Montee Ball, CB Kayvon Webster, DE Quanterus Smith, WR Tavarres King, OT/OG Vinston Painter, QB Zac Dysert - Apparently, folks did not love the King pick but I could see him being a game-changer late in the season. Great deep threat at Georgia.

GAME TO WATCH
Sunday October 27 vs. Washington 3:25 pm - Mike Shananhan returns to Mile High for the first time since leaving Denver. Also you have Robert Griffin III vs. Manning, it will be a fun game.

WIN TOTAL
10-11 - Honestly, if they have Miller out for multiple games, this team might be struggling in the beginning part of the season and their schedule does not do them any favors.  With Miller possibly out, this team is a complete unknown.

Charlie.

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