Fantasy RB Rankings Reaction

Earlier in the offseason, I posted my 2013 Fantasy Football Ranks, so that everyone could get prepared for the fantasy football season. If you missed those rankings, they are posted here.I asked for a lot of feedback, so I knew how to look more in depth at each individual. I won’t be writing about each individual player, instead I will look to spend more time on players that might represent more points for discussion. Charlie and Mitch were more than happy to toss some thoughts about my ranks on the August 14 Tapping the Keg Podcast, if you missed that, the link is here.I’ll use some of the players they mentioned, some players SnoTap contributor Bryan Reynolds mentioned, and players I think are points of discussion this offseason. If you there is anyone you disagree with my rankings on, as always send them to SnoTap12@gmail.com, and I’ll make sure to address it in the next column.

TE Rankings Reaction QB Rankings Reaction WR Rankings Reaction

#2 Marshawn Lynch- Lynch’s ranking says as much about all the other running backs this year than it does about him. I view Lynch as the safest among the players that are in contention for the number 2 slot (Foster, Rice, Charles, Martin, Spiller). Yes Lynch is getting slightly older, and there is some chance for some younger guys to steal a few carries, but Lynch is vital to what Seattle does on offense, and despite their acquisition of Percy Harvin in the offseason, the Seahawks will have to center their offense around the rushing attack again. If I’m picking for upside, Lynch slides down the list, but if I’m picking someone I want to make sure doesn’t fall out of the top 10, Lynch holds the number 2 slot.

#4 Ray Rice- I’m nowhere near as concerned about Ray Rice as everyone else seems to be. A lot of people are talking that Rice will have a down year due to being worked too much the previous seasons and the emergence of Bernard Pierce. While I do like Pierce as a value later in drafts, I see him having value independent of taking value away from Rice. The Ravens have gone through a lot of change in the offseason, and while Joe Flacco just got paid, I believe Ray Rice might be their best player. When a team has to adjust its identity, they’ll make sure to focus on their best players. I think Rice will get a good, but not overwhelming amount of carries this season, but more importantly will catch the ball out of the backfield a lot, as Flacco’s new security blanket on passing plays.

#6 Doug Martin- One of two things is going to happen to Doug Martin this year: he is going to be a top-4 back, that allows many to win their league for taking a chance on him, or he will not produce up to expectations and be the focus of many negative fantasy articles throughout the season. (Remember this sentence, it’ll look familiar soon). I’m a big fan of Martin this year, I’ve gone out of my way to trade for him in my important keeper league, but he’s definitely still a risk. I’ve seen people want him as their second best running back, behind only Adrian Peterson, but that’s a bit too high for me. I still have my concerns. Martin could easily fall victim to injuries, a sophomore jinx, or a slightly overrated end of season ranking, based too much on his monstrous performance against the Oakland Raiders.

#7 CJ Spiller- One of two things is going to happen to CJ Spiller this year: he is going to be a top-4 back, that allows many to win their league for taking a chance on him, or he will not produce up to expectations and be the focus of many negative fantasy articles throughout the season.  Much like Martin, I’ve gone out of my way to trade for in my important keeper league, but he’s definitely also a risk. Much has been made about Spiller getting all the carries and touches now in the Buffalo offense, but I’m not sure that’s the best use of Spiller. Spiller was able to dominate the fantasy world mostly by focusing on his big play ability, similar to how Jamaal Charles began his career. I’m not sure that an increase in offensive touches impacts him as much as it would for other players. If Spiller lives up to expectations, he will dominate, but there are still concerns such as injuries, that make me somewhat cautious.

Young RBs- I’m generally someone who is okay waiting a year or two for a running back to prove themselves before having them land on my team, especially when the player in question has a lot of hype surrounding them. While David Wilson, Lamar Miller, Montee Ball, and Le’Veon Bell are all being called “sleepers,” the popularity of fantasy football has left enough people informed that it will be tough to get a good value on these players. For guys that could easily lose carries to other running backs on their team, it’s tough to count on them for a high draft pick. Would you rather spend a fourth/fifth round pick on these guys, or wait a few rounds and draft Ronnie Hillman, Andre Brown, or Isaac Redman, and still get a higher end wide receiver?  Young running backs are certainly helpful to a team; just make sure you are finding the right guys at the right value.

New Orleans Saints RBs- Darren Sproles is clearly the running back to own of this group, but if either Pierre Thomas or Mark Ingram gets injured, make sure to pick up the other. The Saints running game has been notoriously difficult to predict, since they carried four players on the roster that were worthy of carries. Now that Chris Ivory is in New York, there is some clarity to the position. Sproles will play a lot, and get a lot of catches out of the backfield, but now the majority of the rushing attempts will split between two potentially productive players, both also have injury concerns, which could make the other worth owning.

Backfields to Avoid-

Arizona Cardinals-Unless Rashard Mendenhall or Ryan Williams can separate themselves, this will be a frustrating team.

Indianapolis Colts- Ahmad Bradshaw is the better player, but will be injured at times leading him and Vick Ballard to be frustrating to own.

Carolina Panthers- This has been obvious from the last few seasons, tough to predict with DeAngelo Williams, Jonathon Stewart, Mike Tolbert, and Cam Newton all getting rushing attempts. 

Sometime next week, we'll look into some guys that won't get drafted in most leagues that should be watched closely, for when they eventually break out this year.

Adam

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32 in 31: Baltimore Ravens

Another year of 32 for 31, Sports News on Tap takes the month of August to preview the National Football League. We spend every day of the month looking at a new team and how they will fare in 2013. 

The Super Bowl champs are back to try and defend their title with some familiar faces, but mostly a new
version of this team. With Ray Lewis retiring and Ed Reed going to Houston, the Ravens are now Joe Flacco's team without question. This is his squad and his opportunity to make his case for being one of the best quarterbacks in the National Football League. But as we have learned throughout the years, it is hard to defend the crown as Super Bowl champs.

In the last five years, there has been a true variety of how teams do after winning the Super Bowl. The Green Bay Packers nearly went undefeated, but suffered a loss in the divisional round to the eventful Super Bowl champions, New York Giants. Those same Giants missed the playoffs last year and the same fate happened to the 2009 Pittsburgh Steelers after their Super Bowl win.  A Super Bowl champion has not won a playoff game the year after since the New England Patriots repeated as champs in 2004 and 2005. It is not easy having the target squarely on your back.

OFFENSE
The Ravens were dealt a seismic blow when they lost Dennis Pitta for the season with an injury. Pitta became Flacco's go-to man in redzone situations as well as being a safety valve when he could not find someone deep. They lose Anquan Boldin meaning Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones need to be more than just vertical receivers. For Jones, that is highly unlikely but people should expect Smith to be a fringe Pro Bowl player at his position.  While much is made about Flacco and how good he is, people forget about Ray Rice. He is a top-tier running back in the National Football League who can do it all on the football field. Sometimes the Ravens offense tends to bury Rice and that is still something they need to improve on this season. Baltimore is a better team when Rice and Flacco are working as duel threats, not just Flacco chucking deep balls down the field.

DEFENSE
Personally, I believe the defense will be at the same standards they were for many years now. There was statistical proof last season the Ravens were a better defense when Ray Lewis did not play a snap. While he certainly carried the emotions for the 2012-2013 Baltimore Ravens, he did not really have the same impact as he had before. It is likely rookie Arthur Brown will play a major role in Lewis' absence and they add Elvis Dumervil on the outside with Terrell Suggs which will be just plain scary. Ed Reed might be another story. He still made plays at his old age, and would always be good for a couple returns during the season. In other words, he is a playmaker.  The Ravens look to move on with free agent Michael Huff from Oakland and rookie Matt Elam from Florida whom seems to fit perfectly with Baltimore's tough nose defense.

SPECIAL TEAMS 
Jacoby Jones is obviously the highlight of this group. Jones is a complete threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. Justin Tucker succeeded as a rookie, but there is no guarantee he will be the same player this year. Sam Koch is solid as their punter.

KEY ADDITIONS 
LB Elvis Dumervil, DE Chris Canty, QB Caleb Hanie, S Michael Huff, DE Marcus Spears - They did not do much in the offseason yet Dumervil is still a very large fish that could have a huge impact.

KEY DEPARTURES
LB Ray Lewis, S Ed Reed, WR Anquan Boldin, C Matt Birk, LB Dannell Ellerbe, NT Ma'ke Kemoeatu, LB Paul Kruger, S Bernard Pollard, G Bobbie Williams, CB Cary Williams.

RAVENS DRAFT PICKS 
S Matt Elam, LB Arthur Brown, DT Brandon Williams, DE John Simon, FB Kyle Juszczyk, OT Ricky Wagner, DE Kapron Lews-Moore, OT Ryan Jensen, WR Aaron Mellette, CB Marc Anthony - I would keep my eye on Wagner and Simon. Wagner might have been a higher pick if he had better workouts.

GAME TO WATCH 
Thursday November 28th - vs. Pittsburgh 7:30 pm - We will get there tomorrow, but I expect Pittsburgh to be pretty damn good this year. This could decide the division and it is on Thanksgiving night. I love it so much.

PREDICTION
12 to 14 wins - I think the Ravens will be most like the Green Bay Packers after their Super Bowl win and take the top spot in the AFC. I worry a bit about the new parts on defense and Pitta's injury does not help their cause either although Flacco might be an MVP candidate this year. Yes I am going to drink battery acid for several days now.

Charlie.

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