Tap's Fantasy Report: Week 1

TFR: Tap’s Fantasy Report Week One

Here at SnoTap, we will be helping you weekly throughout the football season. We will recap what happens each week on Tuesday, and also give you some advice on how to use these happenings to win your league. If you have any questions, put them in the comments below or email SnoTap12@gmail.com, and we will answer them in a future post.

Terrelle Pryor-Pryor was mentioned in our Free Agent Finds article, and while we missed on some guys, the logic we used for Pryor came true Week 1. Pryor is not going destroy the NFL for this throwing ability, his goal in that department should be to improve each week, and hopefully create a successful career for himself. In Week 1 against the Colts, he was able to add 112 rushing yards to his passing statistics. His athletic and rushing ability is what makes Pryor fantasy relevant, as well as the lack of serious threat at the quarterback position (sorry Matt Flynn). It should be noted, that the Colts defense is not one of the league’s strongest, (Erick Walden specifically has proven he can’t chase down running quarterbacks, tough post for former Packers) so there are going to be a few rough games in Pryor’s future. Pick him up as a stash option if you can, as he will have some games where he will be a quality starting quarterback, but if you have a reliable top QB, don’t waste a high waiver claim or a lot of FAB money on him. If you already own him, and someone is offering you someone you might start in return, jump on that deal quickly.

Reggie Bush- Yes, Bush lost two scores that he seemingly earned, but he looked like a complete stud, and it looked like the Lions are finally going to be the team to use him to his full potential. He seemed a lot faster than anyone else on the field, and brought a good rushing and receiving threat. This is exactly what owners who drafted Bush were hoping for. However, this is Reggie Bush, all of our preseason concerns are still there, including injuries, which he battled during this game. If you are able to swing Bush for an under performing top 15 back, perhaps a fellow team panicking on Doug Martin or CJ Spiller, pull the trigger. Bush’s value is never going to be higher, he has a chance for a monster year, but he has a chance to break your heart.

David Wilson-If you own David Wilson, take a deep breath. You went through a tough Week 1, but it will get better. Yes, he was benched due to fumbles, but he had fumbling problems at the beginning of last year, and Tom Coughlin had the same type of issues with Tiki Barber. Wilson will get another chance, likely in Week 2, to redeem himself. He will be motivated, and he has a ton of talent still. If Andre Brown didn’t have a broken leg, Wilson would be in more trouble, but the Giants have nobody else. The opportunity is there. Don’t trade him yet if you drafted him, you won’t get value in return, but if you don’t own him, see if the Wilson owner is panicking yet.

Julian Edelman­-Edelman stepped up in the Patriots lack of playmakers, and caught 7 passes for 79 yards and two touchdowns. This is one of the tougher players to get a read on, as he has flashed potential in the past, and has an awesome quarterback throwing to him, but he also has an injury history, and has a difficult to predict offense.  He is likely owned in a lot of leagues, but if he is on the free agent wire, the time to act is now. There are better targets to go after this week, but Edelman will be a good consolation prize as the waiver order processes. If he is already owned in your league, wait a bit longer to see if this is for real or not, it’s still too tough to tell.

Anquan Boldin­-If I was cooler, like Charlie, I’d have a better way to say that Boldin tore up the Packers secondary, but I’m here for my stat-nerdness, not my cool factor, so that will have to do. If you own Boldin, sell high, sell high, sell high. A lot was made of the Packers inability to stop Boldin, and you have to give him all the credit in the world, but that is not a typical 49ers game plan. For the rest of the season, San Fran will pick up more yards on the ground, and they will face a few more teams with larger defensive backs. Boldin was able to dominate due to his size.  Due to these factors, Boldin will have a decent, but not great year. If there is someone overvaluing him, take advantage of it.

Julius Thomas-Since the game was on Thursday, it has calmed down slightly, but people were losing their mind over Thomas’ performance against the Ravens, and it was deserved. Two of the three tight ends in our Free Agent Find post had huge weeks (Thomas, Jordan Cameron) and one was an absolute dud (Zach Sudfeld). If you were smart enough to pick up Thomas before Week 1, sell high now if you can get a good deal. He still has injury history, there are still a lot of targets in that Denver offense, and they won’t put up that many points each week. If you can get a starter at running back or wide receiver, pull the trigger.

Each week, we will discuss some buy low and sell high candidates. We’ll explain our general rules for these categories since it’s Week 1. Everyone should always be available for trade on your team, don’t fall too in love with any individual player, as if someone offers you a ridiculous value, you should take it. The buy low and sell high designations are reserved for when the general public in a league is likely overrating or underrating the value of specific players. A key to winning is identifying these situations and getting upgrades. That being said, don’t trade for, or trade away any of these players without winning the value proposition, unless it helps you position wise.

Buy Low Candidates: Marlon Brown, David Wilson, Lamar Miller, Stevan Ridley, Eddie Lacy, and Cecil Shorts

Sell High Candidates: Reggie Bush, Anquan Boldin, Julius Thomas, and Danny Amendola.

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NFL Liquor Cabinet: Week 1

We are back for another season of the Liquor Cabinet. Some of you are new to Sports News on Tap so let me explain... I look at the NFL week like I do when I head to Ray's Liquor Store in Wauwatosa. Top Shelf is all the booze I cannot afford to buy because I still work part-time at age 25 but it is the real good stuff thus the NFL moments are the real good ones from the week. The middle shelf is stuff I can afford but it is really not good booze meaning the above average/average moments of the NFL slate. The bottom shelf is the stuff guaranteeing you with a hangover that involving puking more than Jason Witten hence the bad stuff that happened this weekend.  

Top Shelf
Chip Kelly's 'gimmick offense' sure looked great - The Eagles ran 77 plays last night. They had 53 of them in the first half keeping an unreal pace that looked like Chip Kelly's Oregon teams with better athletes. LeSean McCoy looked like a new player and Michael Vick seemed to finally fit in an offense.  Philadelphia struggled a bit in the second half, but still, they looked tremendous. Like I said, this team would be a tough read and they are showing it thus far. Tap writer Pat Luce pointed out to me the Eagles only scored 33 or more points last year and it was in a defeat against the Dallas Cowboys.

Reggie Bush and the Lions defense dazzle - I am still not fully bought into the Lions hype, but I will say they looked great in their first game of the season. Reggie Bush played like a monster including people make ridiculous comparisons to Barry Sanders (SANDERS AND BUSH, ONE IN THE SAME? MY COLUMN:). He did play really well and creates a secondary threat for the Lions offense taking some pressure off Matthew Stafford. Their defense deserves some credit as they held Adrian Peterson to 15 yards after his 78 yard run to begin the season. While Ndamukong Suh gets the headlines, they were strong for the greater part.

Statement win by New Orleans - Like what I saw from New Orleans on Sunday. At least for one game, they showed more of a commitment to run the football by running it 29 times although it is still a running back by committee format which needs to change at some point this month.  They also held Atlanta to 17 points, one of the best offenses in the league. New Orleans forced two turnovers as well including a great stand to end the game. I like what the Saints have cooking here at least for the first game of the season.  

Andy Reid looks like a ketchup bottle and the Chiefs - Man, I love Andy Reid. Maybe it is because he looks like a walrus or Mike Holmgren's brother, but I just enjoy the guy and would welcome an opportunity to eat ribs with him. He looked like a bottle of ketchup Sunday, from now on, he is Mr. Heinz until further notice. The Chiefs played well against the Jaguars, but the jury is still out on them. Kansas City-Dallas at Arrowhead should be fun next week.

Middle Shelf
Smoke and mirrors in Seattle? - If I were a Seahawks fan, I would be concerned about Week 1.  If DeAngelo Williams does not fumble around the goal line, Seattle likely loses their first game of the season. Russell Wilson spent more time outside the pocket than inside as the Seahawks offensive line could not protect him to save their soul. All three NFC West foes have great defensive lines. I will be real interested to watch this line against the Niners next week.

T-PEEZY IF YOU'RE NASTY -  Probably too early to get excited about Terrelle Pryor, but he rushed for over 100 yards and kept the Oakland Raiders in a game on the road against a playoff team last season.  Pryor looked like an NFL quarterback out there, and I have always banged the drum that Pryor played in the wrong college system. If Pryor becomes a competent quarterback, it can make Jadeveon Clowney a no-brainer in the first round.

Still Unknown: Houston and San Diego - I have no idea what happened on late Monday night. The Chargers had a massive first half only to pull their best Norv Turner impression in the third and fourth quarter with the Texas imposing their will on offense.  I cannot believe the Texans found a way to win this game and how San Diego lost it.

Defining the Middle Shelf... Patriots win over Buffalo - Remember how we talked about what the middle shelf was earlier? The Patriots are defining it as of now. The Patriots hung in there for the whole game, but they did not really play well at all. They are all sorts of banged up for their Thursday night game against the New York Jets and I would be a little concerned if I were a Patriot fan.

Future is bright in St. Louis and Phoenix - Arizona and St. Louis played a pretty good game on Sunday. Jared Cook finally looked like he might be worth his potential. Larry Fitzgerald finally has a quarterback. Both defenses did alright. I feel like we are watching two teams on the cusp of really having something with their teams.

Bottom Shelf
Lavonte David... Not a wise move, bro - He is one of the best young linebackers in the league, but right now, the Tampa Bay linebacker is known as the guy whom pushed Geno Smith after he went out of bounds leading the Jets to getting a game-winning field goal. David will be fine, but this defines the Buccaneers right now. They still have yet to fix the undisciplined play and that should concern Bucs fans.

Let's talk about Pittsburgh - I picked this team to go to the Super Bowl and they only scored nine points against Tennessee. The Steelers also lost Maurkice Pouncey, Larry Foote and LeRod Stephens-Howling for the season, all three important players to this team. I am starting to believe the 2010 team sold their soul to the devil to get to the Super Bowl because they have not seem to catch a break in quite some time. It does not get any easier heading to Cincinnati on Monday Night Football.  Pittsburgh does not need to win, but they need to at least look like they have a pulse.

Giants might need a running back - The New York Giants running back combination of David Wilson, DaRell Scott and Michael Cox is not a good look for them right now. They had multiple turnovers and struggled the whole game. Willis McGahee and Michael Turner might be options for them. But the fact the Giants are looking at Brandon Jacobs should scare the complete shit out of New York.

Rey Maualuga loses his cool and the football game for Cincinnati - The Bengals looked like they were going to get another chance against the Chicago Bears and then the former USC standout had an unsportsman-like conduct leading to an automatic Bears first down and a Bears win. Cincinnati had an eleven point lead after having a punishing opening second half drive and they stalled from there. The Bengals had two three-and-outs plus a turnover in the red zone.  A team whose supposed to be a Super Bowl contender does not have games like this one.

Brandon Weeden's hype deflates like a popped balloon - Out of all the people who had bad starts, Weeden probably depressed me the most. I did not really buy into the Browns hype like others, but at the same time, I felt like their offensive could be much better than years past. Weeden had three interceptions in the first half and it was curtains from there. The Browns really do not have much moving forward at quarterback and they have to ride it out.

Charlie.

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32 in 31: Detroit Lions

Another year of 32 in 31. Sports News on Tap takes the month of August to preview the National Football League. We spend every day of the month looking at a new team and how they will fare in 2013.

Fair to say, the Detroit Lions were a complete mess last year. Comparable to being drunk at 5 pm after day drinking since 9 am meaning you probably have stains of beer, burrito and drool on your shirt and probably made some unsuccessful passes at the opposite sex, this was the Lions last season.

They added some new pieces, gave Matthew Stafford a brand new contract and they are ready to make an attempt to return to the NFL Playoffs.

OFFENSE
After receiving much criticism about his injury history, Stafford remained healthy for the second consecutive year.  Yes, there is still a chance the injury bug rears its ugly head especially with Stafford throwing the ball 600+ times in 2012 and 700+ times in 2013 plus his weird motion does not help either.  This leads to gaudy numbers, but let's be honest here, he is nowhere near a top ten quarterback in the National Football League. Stafford had nearly 5,000 yards, but had a quarterback rating of 79.8.  He gets the numbers just based off doing it a bunch of times.

The hope is Stafford's passing attempts should go down this year as they signed Reggie Bush from the Miami Dolphins. Bush gives the Lions their first running threat in the Stafford era.  They had a revolving door of running backs that Detroit hopes will end this season with Bush. He had some great years in Miami and being in a closed stadium with field turf should only help Bush's year.

Calvin Johnson had another big season with the Lions which should surprise no one, but he will get some of his buddies back from injury lightening his load in terms of attention by opposing secondary. Nate Burleson and Ryan Broyles both figure to be factors for this team. The development of Brandon Pettigrew is crucial as well.

DEFENSE
The Lions defensive line has always been a talking point when people discuss this team, and they shaped a little differently this year although they will be just as dangerous. Detroit drafted Ziggy Ansah in the first-round making an absolute lethal combination with Ndamukong Suh in terms of speed and size once Ansah puts on a few pounds. So far, Nick Fairley has missed nine games in two years as a Lion, and he needs to find a way to stay on the field as the former Auburn defensive tackle can be a major player.

One of the biggest concerns with the Lions has always been their secondary. They tried to fix things with Glover Quinn from Houston and they get Louis Delmas back from injury last year giving them a legitimate tandem at safety for the first time since Miley Cyrus was Hannah Montana.  Their cornerbacks are decent with Chris Houston and probably Bill Bradley, a second-year player who started a couple games before getting hurt. The Lions should not be getting burned in the passing game as much as they have in the past couple of years.

SPECIAL TEAMS
Sigh. Jason Hanson has finally retired, sad times. They added David Akers from San Francisco, but he did not have the greatest year with the Niners although playing in a controlled home atmosphere for the first time in his career should help him.

KEY ADDITIONS
RB Reggie Bush, S Glover Quin, DE Jason Jones, WR Devin Thomas - We talked about most of these players already, Thomas could be a returner for them.

KEY SUBTRACTIONS
K Jason Hanson, DE Cliff Avril, OT Jeff Backus, DE Kyle Vanden Bosch OT Gosder Cherlius, P Nick Harris, CB Jacob Lacey, KR Stefan Logan, OG Stephen Peterman, WR Titus Young Sr.

LIONS DRAFT PICKS
DE Ziggy Ansah, CB Darius Slay, OG Larry Warford, DE Devin Taylor, P Sam Martin, WR Corey Fuller, RB Theo Riddick, TE Michael Williams, LB Brandon Hepburn - Love the Riddick and Taylor picks, I feel both could make an impact this year.

GAME TO WATCH
Thursday November 28th vs. Green Bay 11:30 am - The Lions finish their year with only three games against division opponents in the last eight games. Two of those are on the road with one being at home on Thanksgiving against the Packers. This should be quite a significant Turkey Day game.

WIN TOTAL 
7-9 - Could the Lions get to the playoffs?  Yes, it is possible, but they face a pretty tough schedule even for finishing with only four wins. They have the talent, but it is still unknown if they have the chemistry to put it all together. If the Lions do not win seven games, the seat is very warm for Jim Schwartz.

Charlie.

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Keys to a Successful Fantasy Football Draft

As part of our continued increase in fantasy sports coverage here at SnoTap, this week we will look into some good strategies to take with you into your draft. If you missed last week’s article on how to improve your league here it is: Enhancing your Fantasy Football League

The draft is perhaps the most important day in your fantasy football league for multiple reasons. First off, if you’re able to do the draft in person, it’s the day that is the most fun, as you will gather together with the whole league. Second, it’s when you fill out your roster with the guys you will be working with through the rest of the year, whether it’s starting them, trading them, or cutting them when they don’t work out. Bryan Reynolds and I have put together some strategies we use for each draft. Feel free to use and of your favorites for your league this season.

Adam: Know your opponent:

Perhaps the most important aspect of fantasy football is to know your competition. What kind of player are they, what level of knowledge do they have about the sport, who are their favorite teams, who do they hate? This can be important because you can tell what they are going to do. For example, if you have someone who is an avid Packer fan, and not very experienced in fantasy sports, they’re likely to take Aaron Rodgers with their first pick, no matter where that falls in the draft. If you’re targeting Aaron as your stud QB, it’s important to pick him before that player. Knowing your enemy can tell you a lot about who they are going to draft, and help form your strategy.

Bryan: Know which position you can wait for:

Find which positions you are comfortable waiting for the 10^th-12^thbest player. An example of this is in the 2013 season, which will definitely be noticeable while looking at the QB and TE position. Rodgers leads the group of top tier QB’s, but he is one of few. The second tier is so large that there is likely a minimal difference between taking the fourth rated QB and the 10^th. Same goes for TE, where Jimmy Graham is running away with the top rank, but the difference is minimal after that.

Adam: Don’t Panic:

Every draft I have been featured a panic rush on players. In most seasons, there will be one position that is a little bit weaker than others, for instance this year it is running backs. What happens in these leagues is owners will reach for players above their value, and the players at that position will drop like flies. Next thing you know, you’re taking DeMarco Murray and Reggie Bush in the second round. My advice here is go against the trend. Instead of panicking, and taking a lesser value running back, take someone who will dominate their position. If you have top five players at QB, WR, and TE, you can patch together running backs from the waiver wire later in the season once injuries start happening. The key to this strategy is to look for sleepers later in the draft, once everyone else thinks they're set, and then finding quality contributors off of the waiver wire once the season has started.

Bryan: Analyze Defenses and Divisions:

It is important to analyze DEF season schedules and division matchups before the draft. I like to start the draft with three or four defenses in my head I am targeting for my team. A team like San Diego had a solid defense last year, but we have to remember they will face Denver twice throughout the season. Also, a team that can consistently stop opponents is better, as there is no method to calculate how many turnovers you can count on each week.

Adam: Know your scoring:

When looking at expert’s rankings, it is important to understand which scoring format they are considering. For example, most rankings assume four points-passing touchdown, no PPR, one point-ten yards rushing/receiving. Know where your scoring differentiates between the general leagues. If your league has six points per passing touchdown, some of the more pure passing quarterbacks will move up in the ranks, and not everyone may realize it. A lot of experts have Peyton Manning and Cam Newton on the same tier for quarterbacks. In a league where passing touchdowns are only four points, Cam might take the edge because of his rushing ability. However, if you’re looking at six points for a passing touchdown, Manning all of a sudden takes the lead, as he will rack up the points in that category. The same goes for teammates Julio Jones and Roddy White. Jones usually leads in touchdowns, but White gets more targets meaning more receptions.

Bryan: Visualize your Team:

Print off the list of rankings we will produce here on SnoTap (coming next 2 weeks) or use another site’s, such as ESPN. Once printed, go through each position and highlight your ideal candidate for each position. Obviously, it will be impossible for you to get all these players, so go through the categories again and highlight a few players outside of your top 5 that will sufficiently fit the role. You may find it helpful to highlight a lot of players in the WR and RB categories, as they will comprise a majority of your bench positions.

Adam: Look for Opportunity:

The key to all fantasy sports is playing time and opportunities to showcase skills. The players who provide the most points won’t always be the leaders in the talent department. For the last few years, Michael Turner has been a leader at the running back position, despite not being overwhelming in the talent department. What set him apart however was having no clear challenge to playing time, staying healthy, and having a team that wanted to utilize him. It allowed him to consistently deliver, while other, more talented running backs where stuck on the bench or the injured reserve.

Did we miss any strategies? What do you use for your league? Make sure to test out a few different strategies on various fantasy sites’ mock drafts. Next week, we will have rankings for the QB and TE positions. If you have any fantasy sports questions, send them to Snotap12@gmail.com, and we will make sure to get them answered in the following week’s column.

Adam

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