NFL Picks Week 1: Don't Let Peyton Manning Ruin your Weekend

I find Facebook annoying probably more times than I find it enjoyable. There is always something people can complain about and the flavor of the day is how they are playing Peyton Manning in fantasy football this week.  If you did not hear, Manning went off for seven touchdowns and had 63 fantasy points.  Now, this puts a lot of people at a sizable disadvantage for Week 1 but it should not damper your weekend. It is just fantasy football and it is just week one. If he did this to cost you 500 dollars then I understand a little bit better (For the record, I have Manning in one league so maybe that's why I feel this way, shut up).  There will be some great games this weekend and I am here to pick them with the spreads. My record this year will be Straight Up and Against The Spread.

New England (-10) at Buffalo 12 pm CBS - As a Packer fan, I wish I could be New England and start with a cupcake. They somewhat struggle in Buffalo, but with E.J. Manuel making his first appearance plus him being banged up, it seems like the Patriots should coast in this one. NE 38-14

Cincinnati at Chicago (-3) 12 pm CBS - Fun game for the first week of the season. The Bears new look offensive line will be tested with Geno Atkins and company coming at them. Andy Dalton handling Soldier Field with the wind is something that would concern me if I were a Cincinnati fan.  I feel like the Bears offensive line protects Cutler enough and his receiving core has a big day. CHI 21-17

Miami at Cleveland (-1) 12 pm CBS - This could set the tone for the year. Both teams are fringe playoff teams. I really do not think people recognize at least on paper how good Cleveland's defense can be this season.  Maybe it is my lingering Ryan Tannehill concerns, but I think the Browns win this one although it better not come down a field goal to win it.  CLEV 17-13

Minnesota at Detroit (-5.5) 12 pm FOX - Where did all the hype for the Lions come from? All the sudden, we have Mike Florio putting them into the NFC Championship and other people are talking about Detroit. It is like people forgot Minnesota made the playoffs last year. I still like the Lions at home, but this should be a close, hard-fought game.  DET 23-21

Oakland at Indianapolis (-10) 12 pm CBS - This will be a long, long year for Raiders fan. It starts in the Oil Drum and the Colts should have no problems in the first game of the year. Darrius Heyward-Bey will go off just to troll Raiders fans. IND 34-10

Atlanta at New Orleans (-3) 12 pm FOX - Another game where it could set the tone for at least the first couple months of the season. This will be an NFL shootout. The Saints defense is not the best in the league and I feel like the Falcons defense will be a real eyesore. It will come down to who has the ball last and I'm going with the Saints.  NO 42-38

Tampa Bay (-3) at New York Jets 12 pm FOX - The return of Darrelle Revis and I feel like everyone is against the Jets meaning they will find a way to win. Oh who am I kidding, Revis will probably have a pick-six against Geno Smith because it would not be the NFL season without people overreacting about the Jets. TB 27-15

Tennessee at Pittsburgh (-7) 12 pm CBS - The thing to watch is how the Steelers running backs will be as they try to replace Le'Von Bell. Now, Ben Roethlisberger is the man but a lot with Aaron Rodgers, he needs a nice compliment. I think they have no issue whatsoever with the Titans.  PITT 30-17

Seattle (-3.5) at Carolina 12 pm FOX - Here is the SnoTap upset of the week. This is a tough game for Seattle. They have all the hype in the world coming into the season. They have to play at 1 pm, 10 am their time and the Panthers are a fringe playoff squad. Cam Newton has a big day with his legs and they win this game. CAR 19-16

Kansas City (-4) at Jacksonville 12 pm CBS - The Chiefs will begin their comeback season in Jacksonville. Big days from both Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles. KC 28-10

Arizona at St. Louis (-4.5) 3:25 pm FOX - Just like Miami-Cleveland, this is game that could set the tone for the season.  Both are NFC West teams looking for an in this year.  I feel like Arizona's defensive backs will keep this close, but the Rams find a way to win with Daryl Richardson having a big day. STL 24-23

Green Bay at San Francisco (-4.5) 3:25 pm FOX - Here's our Packer Preview from earlier today.

New York Giants at Dallas (-3) 7:30 pm NBC - Do you know Dallas has never beat the Giants at Cowboys Stadium? Have you heard about that?  CRAZY RIGHT?!  The Cowboys are going to show why they are the cream of the crop in the NFC East this weekend.  Dez Bryant will have a massive opening weekend and the Cowboys pull away late. DAL 35-24

Monday
Philadelphia at Washington (-4.5) 5:55 pm ESPN - READ OPTION BOWL.  I am going to take Washington in this one because I have no idea what I am getting from Philadelphia yet. It should be a fun game to watch with all the different storylines. WASH 33-30

Houston (-4) at San Diego 9:15 pm ESPN - This will be the first of 17 weeks where you realize how bad the San Diego Chargers are going to be this season. Houston will make the first case. HOU 30-13

Charlie.

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32 in 31: San Diego Chargers

Another year of 32 in 31. Sports News on Tap takes the month of August to preview the National Football League. We spend every day of the month looking at a new team and how they will fare in 2013.

San Diego Chargers had some great years in the last 15 years, but they never made it to the Super Bowl. It could be argued they were the biggest underachieving successful team in professional sports. The Chargers should have been in the Super Bowl at some point, but they never made it very close minus an AFC Championship game. But San Diego's window is completely closed.

The Chargers are getting pretty old in certain spots and even with a new head coach, Mike McCoy, San Diego could be one of the worst teams in football this year.  

OFFENSE
Philip Rivers is not the same quarterback as he used to be in 2012. Rivers had four straight seasons of 4,000+ yard seasons before only getting close to 3,600.  He also had 13 fumbles last season which is his worst of his career. Not even in his rookie year did Rivers have a problem with fumbling the football. Usually when this starts, it keeps happening; a lot like a PGA golfer who has the 'yips' with his putter. Rivers also had 15 interceptions meaning he had 28 turnovers last season as a quarterback. Could a lot of Rivers' struggles be attributed to his weak offensive line? Yes, but only so far.  Jay Cutler has dealt with some of the worst offensive lines in the history of the sport and still ends up finding a way to be a pretty solid quarterback.

Ryan Matthews is a walking injury. He is a good running back, but the fact of the matter is Matthews always finds himself sitting on the sidelines.  In his first three years, Matthews has missed 10 games with injury and had only one year where he went over 1,000. Additionally, he cannot find the endzone to save his soul. Matthews only had one touchdown last season, one! Further, Matthews' best season he only had seven touchdowns. In case you're wondering, I find him overrated.

DEFENSE
They do have some young players in their front seven that Charger fans should be happy about in the upcoming years. Corey Liuget and Kendall Reyes are both pretty strong defensive ends who had great seasons last season.  They also have Manti Te'o and Larry English patrolling the middle linebacker position. Who knows if Te'o will be a starter out the gate, but I feel like he will be heavily involved with the defense throughout the year.  Too bad they lost Melvin Ingram already for the year with a ruptured Achilles.

Eric Weddle is really the only thing to be happy about in the secondary.  Weddle has become a Pro Bowl safety in the last couple of years and he is a great centerfielder. They added Derek Cox from Jacksonville and he will bolster their secondary somewhat.  They will have to replace Antoine Cason and Quentin Jammer which will definitely take some time.

SPECIAL TEAMS
What's interesting in doing these previews is teams tend to keep their special teams around if they are good. Nick Novak had a huge year last year for the Bolts and Mike Scifres has been punting for the Chargers since the first George Bush was in office. Michael Spurlock can always break a punt or kick return.

KEY ADDITIONS
CB Derek Cox, OT King Dunlap, WR Deon Butler, RB Danny Woodhead - GOOD NEWS WHEN MATTHEWS GOES DOWN, THEY HAVE WOODHEAD!! I have no idea if he will be good outside of New England.

KEY SUBTRACTIONS
OG Luis Vasquez, LB Takeo Spikes, LB Shaun Phillips, CB Antoine Cason, TE Randy McMichael, DE Vaughan Martin, CB Quentin Jammer, DT Aubrayo Franklin, S Atari Bigby

CHARGERS DRAFT PICKS
OT DJ Fluker, LB Manti Te'o, WR Keenan Allen, CB Steve Williams, LB Tourek Williams, QB Brad Sorensen - Allen was a first round pick in some people's mock draft. I would watch out for him this season.

GAME TO WATCH
Sunday November 10th vs. Denver 3:25 pm: I do not see this team having many games worth much but whenever they play the likely AFC West leader at home, it's a big deal.

WIN TOTAL
3-5 - I feel very confident in saying this will be the start of a rebuilding process for the Chargers and do not be surprised if they pick a quarterback early next year.

Charlie.

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Keys to a Successful Fantasy Football Draft

As part of our continued increase in fantasy sports coverage here at SnoTap, this week we will look into some good strategies to take with you into your draft. If you missed last week’s article on how to improve your league here it is: Enhancing your Fantasy Football League

The draft is perhaps the most important day in your fantasy football league for multiple reasons. First off, if you’re able to do the draft in person, it’s the day that is the most fun, as you will gather together with the whole league. Second, it’s when you fill out your roster with the guys you will be working with through the rest of the year, whether it’s starting them, trading them, or cutting them when they don’t work out. Bryan Reynolds and I have put together some strategies we use for each draft. Feel free to use and of your favorites for your league this season.

Adam: Know your opponent:

Perhaps the most important aspect of fantasy football is to know your competition. What kind of player are they, what level of knowledge do they have about the sport, who are their favorite teams, who do they hate? This can be important because you can tell what they are going to do. For example, if you have someone who is an avid Packer fan, and not very experienced in fantasy sports, they’re likely to take Aaron Rodgers with their first pick, no matter where that falls in the draft. If you’re targeting Aaron as your stud QB, it’s important to pick him before that player. Knowing your enemy can tell you a lot about who they are going to draft, and help form your strategy.

Bryan: Know which position you can wait for:

Find which positions you are comfortable waiting for the 10^th-12^thbest player. An example of this is in the 2013 season, which will definitely be noticeable while looking at the QB and TE position. Rodgers leads the group of top tier QB’s, but he is one of few. The second tier is so large that there is likely a minimal difference between taking the fourth rated QB and the 10^th. Same goes for TE, where Jimmy Graham is running away with the top rank, but the difference is minimal after that.

Adam: Don’t Panic:

Every draft I have been featured a panic rush on players. In most seasons, there will be one position that is a little bit weaker than others, for instance this year it is running backs. What happens in these leagues is owners will reach for players above their value, and the players at that position will drop like flies. Next thing you know, you’re taking DeMarco Murray and Reggie Bush in the second round. My advice here is go against the trend. Instead of panicking, and taking a lesser value running back, take someone who will dominate their position. If you have top five players at QB, WR, and TE, you can patch together running backs from the waiver wire later in the season once injuries start happening. The key to this strategy is to look for sleepers later in the draft, once everyone else thinks they're set, and then finding quality contributors off of the waiver wire once the season has started.

Bryan: Analyze Defenses and Divisions:

It is important to analyze DEF season schedules and division matchups before the draft. I like to start the draft with three or four defenses in my head I am targeting for my team. A team like San Diego had a solid defense last year, but we have to remember they will face Denver twice throughout the season. Also, a team that can consistently stop opponents is better, as there is no method to calculate how many turnovers you can count on each week.

Adam: Know your scoring:

When looking at expert’s rankings, it is important to understand which scoring format they are considering. For example, most rankings assume four points-passing touchdown, no PPR, one point-ten yards rushing/receiving. Know where your scoring differentiates between the general leagues. If your league has six points per passing touchdown, some of the more pure passing quarterbacks will move up in the ranks, and not everyone may realize it. A lot of experts have Peyton Manning and Cam Newton on the same tier for quarterbacks. In a league where passing touchdowns are only four points, Cam might take the edge because of his rushing ability. However, if you’re looking at six points for a passing touchdown, Manning all of a sudden takes the lead, as he will rack up the points in that category. The same goes for teammates Julio Jones and Roddy White. Jones usually leads in touchdowns, but White gets more targets meaning more receptions.

Bryan: Visualize your Team:

Print off the list of rankings we will produce here on SnoTap (coming next 2 weeks) or use another site’s, such as ESPN. Once printed, go through each position and highlight your ideal candidate for each position. Obviously, it will be impossible for you to get all these players, so go through the categories again and highlight a few players outside of your top 5 that will sufficiently fit the role. You may find it helpful to highlight a lot of players in the WR and RB categories, as they will comprise a majority of your bench positions.

Adam: Look for Opportunity:

The key to all fantasy sports is playing time and opportunities to showcase skills. The players who provide the most points won’t always be the leaders in the talent department. For the last few years, Michael Turner has been a leader at the running back position, despite not being overwhelming in the talent department. What set him apart however was having no clear challenge to playing time, staying healthy, and having a team that wanted to utilize him. It allowed him to consistently deliver, while other, more talented running backs where stuck on the bench or the injured reserve.

Did we miss any strategies? What do you use for your league? Make sure to test out a few different strategies on various fantasy sites’ mock drafts. Next week, we will have rankings for the QB and TE positions. If you have any fantasy sports questions, send them to Snotap12@gmail.com, and we will make sure to get them answered in the following week’s column.

Adam

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