Fantasy WR Rankings Reaction

Earlier in the offseason, I posted my 2013 Fantasy Football Ranks, so that everyone could get prepared for the fantasy football season. If you missed those rankings, they are posted here.I asked for a lot of feedback, so I knew how to look more in depth at each individual. I won’t be writing about each individual player, instead I will look to spend more time on players that might represent more points for discussion. Charlie and Mitch were more than happy to toss some thoughts about my ranks on the August 14 Tapping the Keg Podcast, if you missed that, the link is here.I’ll use some of the players they mentioned, some players SnoTap contributor Bryan Reynolds mentioned, and players I think are points of discussion this offseason. If you there is anyone you disagree with my rankings on, as always send them to SnoTap12@gmail.com, and I’ll make sure to address it in the next column.




TE Rankings Reaction QB Rankings Reaction

#4 Andre Johnson- This was one of the hardest ranks for me at the wide receiver position. Johnson has always had immense talent on the field, but injuries, offensive game plan, and a lack of another target to take defense’s attention has led to an inconsistent fantasy career. Last year, Johnson put it together, especially at the end of the season, when it mattered most. This rank shows that I think Johnson has one more healthy season in him, and the Texans have an offense that will focus a bit more on getting him the ball. If Johnson stays healthy and preforms up to his potential, he is one of the few players that can give Megatron a run for the number one receiver spot, but he is a risky pick. Johnson has the ability to put up huge numbers, but also has the ability to be a wasted draft pick, choose carefully. 

#5 Larry Fitzgerald- Fitzgerald is coming off a season that was a disappointment to anyone that drafted him. He has been dealing with a roundtable of terrible quarterbacks over the past few seasons, and although Carson Palmer isn’t a Hall of Famer, an upgrade to adequate is just what Fitzgerald needs. I still view Larry as one of the best wide receivers in football, talent has never been his issue, quarterback play has. Now that he has someone that can get him the ball, I see a bounce back season in Fitzgerald’s future.  If Palmer can stay healthy, and get enough time to get the ball downfield, there is a great opportunity in the Arizona passing game. The fact that Fitzgerald can still win jump balls in the end zone will also help him and the Cardinals on the goal line. If the rest of your league is letting Fitzgerald slip in the draft, pick him up and get a great value.

#6 Dez Bryant- Charlie mentioned multiple times that he thinks Dez Bryant should be ranked higher. Many fantasy football players likely have Dez competing for the number two spot behind Calvin Johnson. I believe in Bryant stepping up this year, I just don’t think that we should rank him that high, just yet. He had an inconsistent start to his career, combining a lack of focus at times with injuries. Bryant did come on very strong at the end of last season, but I want to see him put it together for a long period of time before moving him up too far in the rankings. His potential to put together a disappointing season is what stops him from being ranked higher in my mind.

#18 Wes Welker- In the offseason, Wes Welker went from one Future Hall of Fame quarterback to another, transitioning from Tom Brady to Peyton Manning. Many people viewed this as an opportunity for Welker to continue to dominate, as Manning loves to throw it to slot receivers. I think Welker will be very successful in Denver, but will feature a reduction in value due to a couple reasons. The first is he is no longer the only receiver on his own team. In New England, Welker was hands down the number one receiver each season. In Denver, Welker has to fight with Eric Decker and DeMaryius Thomas for targets. Since Denver will throw the ball a lot, Welker will still have a lot of receptions, but it won’t be the insane number of targets he has had recently. The second reason Welker might not be as high of a value is chemistry with his quarterback. Although I have no doubt Welker and Manning will get along, there were few tandems with better chemistry than Brady and Welker. When Brady got in trouble, he knew where Welker would be on the field without even looking, it will take some time to develop that with Peyton. For those reasons, I think Welker will have a good, but not great season in Denver.

#19 Danny Amendola- For years, Wes Welker was a high end fantasy receiver for the New England Patriots, becoming an absolute stud in PPR leagues. For the last few seasons, people have compared former Rams WR Danny Amendola to Wes Welker. It only made sense when Welker moved to the Denver Broncos that Amendola would take his place. Since that move has taken place, many have said that Amendola will put up a monster season, replicating Welker’s performance, as long as he stayed healthy. I am not on board with that analysis. Amendola has a lot of potential, and is an injury risk, but it is not as easy as slotting him in Welker’s role, and getting the same results as long as they are on the field. Amendola needs to create chemistry with Tom Brady, needs to learn a new offense (something many young players have struggled with in New England), and then needs to stay healthy. Amendola has potential to be just as good as Wes Welker, that is true, but expecting it is going to lead to a lot of people reaching for him in drafts, be smart and realize there is more risk here than just injuries.

#23 Randall Cobb-Yes, I am a Packer fan. Yes, I am a huge Randall Cobb fan. Yes, I have heard all the reports about how much Rodgers loves Cobb, and how many targets he will get this season. No, I will probably not own Randall Cobb on any teams this year. The hype seems to be getting a bit high for Randall Cobb this offseason in terms of fantasy football. Just last season, many fantasy experts were talking about players needing to stay away from Packer receivers because with so many targets, it was hard to predict who would get the ball each week. That issue still seems to be present in my mind, with Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and a potentially refocused Jermichael Finley. Combine all of those receivers with an increased running game, and there might not be as many targets out there to make Cobb a number 1 fantasy receiver. So yes, I think Randall Cobb is a great player, and I’m very happy he is a member of my favorite team, I just think there is a chance he doesn’t have the amazing fantasy season people are starting to expect. 

Check back tomorrow for our reaction on the running back position.

Adam

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32 in 31: Denver Broncos

Another year of 32 in 31. Sports News on Tap takes the month of August to preview the National Football League. We spend every day of the month looking at a new team and how they will fare in 2013.

Denver Broncos had a typical Peyton Manning year. They have a great regular season and fall short in the playoffs. This is not a knock to Manning, rather he just seems to not be the same quarterback in the playoffs. This is a 'Do or Die' year for the Broncos. Manning is not getting any younger at age 37 and his window is likely closing quicker than other quarterbacks in the NFL. They play in a weak AFC West, but there will be a lot of challenges for the upcoming season.

OFFENSE
The Broncos made sure Manning would have more weapons this season as they signed Wes Welker. This could be football porn with the way Manning uses his slot receivers. Welker should have a direct impact on the Broncos offense creating major problems for opposing defense running around in the slot.  The other thing that should be exciting for Bronco fans is Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker could take their games to another level as they mature as pro athletes.

After adding Welker, the Broncos went to the draft and picked Montee Ball from Wisconsin. This is an interesting pick for the Broncos specifically because Ball reminds me of former Bronco Willis McGehee in terms of the way he runs the football but he is no a pass catcher.  At Wisconsin, Ball had one season where he had a big year catching the football with 24 receptions and 306 yards with six touchdowns.  While catching the ball is usually not the most important thing for a running back, not every quarterback in front of them is a Manning.

The biggest concern for the Broncos is their shaky interior line. They lost Dan Koppen for the season in training camp with an ACL injury meaning there is not a center who knows how to deal with Manning. He is a different bird with all of his audibles and it could really effect this team during the season. Manny Ramirez, no not that one, is going to be the first man up to the challenge. This could be an unnoticed problem for the Broncos this year.

DEFENSE
This defense took a hit when Elvis Dumervil went to their new rival Baltimore this offseason and then it is possible they will be losing their superstar linebacker Von Miller for six games for violating the substance-abuse policy. Miller is said to appeal meaning he might only lose four games, but even if the suspension is reduced, the Broncos defense will be completely lost without Miller.  He is an absolute game-changer whether it be rushing the quarterback or making a play in pass coverage. Now Shuan Phillips coming from San Diego might lighten the load on losing Miller, but the weakside linebacker looks like a complete wasteland.

I would also worry about the cornerback position this season. Adding Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will help, but I am not sure Champ Bailey will be the same player as he has been in years past. Bailey looked exposed in the playoff loss to Baltimore and it is really hard for me to fathom he will be a better player next season. Now Bailey is one of the best ever and it could have been just a bad stretch for him, but as we have seen with cornerbacks, if they lose it, they really lose it.  

SPECIAL TEAMS
One of the best in the the league with Matt Prater even if he has a ridiculous tattoo and Britton Colquitt. Both players can dictate a game for the Broncos. They also made one of the best free-agent signing mid-season acquiring Trinton Holiday to return kicks and punts.  

KEY ADDITIONS
WR Wes Welker, LB Stewart Bradley, LB Shaun Phillips, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, OG Louis Vasquez - We have touched on most of these players already but one we did not is Vasquez. He could be a very important part to the Broncos interior line staying together.

KEY SUBTRACTIONS
LB Elvis Dumervil, DT Justin Bannan, LB Keith Brooking, WR Brandon Stokley, LB DJ Williams

BRONCOS DRAFT PICKS
DT Slyvester Williams, RB Montee Ball, CB Kayvon Webster, DE Quanterus Smith, WR Tavarres King, OT/OG Vinston Painter, QB Zac Dysert - Apparently, folks did not love the King pick but I could see him being a game-changer late in the season. Great deep threat at Georgia.

GAME TO WATCH
Sunday October 27 vs. Washington 3:25 pm - Mike Shananhan returns to Mile High for the first time since leaving Denver. Also you have Robert Griffin III vs. Manning, it will be a fun game.

WIN TOTAL
10-11 - Honestly, if they have Miller out for multiple games, this team might be struggling in the beginning part of the season and their schedule does not do them any favors.  With Miller possibly out, this team is a complete unknown.

Charlie.

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32 in 31: New England Patriots

Another year of 32 for 31, Sports News on Tap takes the month of August to preview the National Football League. We spend every day of the month looking at a new team and how they will fare in 2013. 

It is hard to remember if the New England Patriots had a rougher offseason in their time of being a powerhouse in the NFL. Usually, they mind their business, maybe Tom Brady gets caught dancing like a fool, but that is about it.  This year, things were completely different. The Patriots first signed Tim Tebow which went together for the national media like peanut butter and jelly. Give New England credit, the Tebow stuff has died down at least for the start of training camp; who knows what happens when he breaks a 48 yard run in preseason probably back to threat level over-excitement.  

Things went from just frantic to terrifying. In the late June, former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez was charged in the murder of Odin Lloyd. While the Patriots released Hernandez 90 minutes after his arrest, the black cloud hung over the team. They were the ones faced with a majority of the Hernandez questions, but as the Patriots usually do, they handled it like the utmost gentlemen. Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and Vince Wilfork all showed why they are leaders. Hernandez will probably be a discussion in correlation with this team for at least this year, but if anyone can handle a distraction in a orange jumpsuit, it's the Patriots. 

OFFENSE 

They have some real issues going on for the first time in a long while. The biggest problem is they will not have their top five receivers back from last season. Four of them are no longer on the team and the other will be battling injury to begin the year. They are definitely different quarterbacks by style, Brady and Brett Favre have some similarities in terms of personnel.  Favre never had many big name receivers and they all worked like a turnstile. Brady has had some notable names, but most have came and went. The one Brady does have going for him in the passing game is the offensive line should be pretty stacked. Nate Soldier is a beast along with Sebastian Vollmer plus their two mainstays at guard.  The running game will also be by committee to start as Steven Ridley still recovers from his injury suffered in the final game of the season.  

DEFENSE 

The Patriots are still looking for the days of Tedy Bruschi, Ty Law and others, but they will be improved this year.  I expect big years from Dont'a Hightower and Chandler Jones both entering their second season as professionals, to create some havoc in the front seven. Jared Mayo and Wilfork are the two more consistent players on this defense. They get a full year of Aqib Talib which will definitely help them in the secondary.  They also added Adrian Wilson from the Arizona Cardinals to help their secondary out which is probably their softest spot on defense.

SPECIAL TEAMS

One of the best in the business at both kicking and punting with Stephan Gostkowski who set a franchise record last year for his accuracy rate last season at 84.4.  Zoltan Mesko can boom punts with the best of them. They also got better in the return game adding Leon Washington who can break any kick or punt.  

KEY ADDITIONS 

WR Danny Amendola, RB LeGarrette Blount, WR Michael Jenkins DT Tommy Kelly, RB/KR Leon Washington, S Adrian Wilson - If the pressure was not enough for Amedola to replace Wes Welker, he will also try to make up for the Hernandez void as well. He must stay healthy and if he does, he will be a great addition to this team. 

KEY DEPARTURES 

WR Wes Welker, WR Deion Branch, S Patrick Chung, WR Brandon Lloyd, G Donald Thomas, RB Danny Woodhead, TE Aaron Hernandez 

PATRIOTS DRAFT PICKS 

DE/LB Jamie Collins, WR Aaron Dobson, CB Logan Ryan, S Duron Harmon, WR Josh Boyce, DE Michael Buchanan, LB Steve Beauharnais - Dobson is the one to watch in this group as he is a physical freak and will be asked to contribute right away.   

GAME TO WATCH

November 24th: vs. Denver 7:30 pm (NBC) - The annual Brady-Peyton Manning game will have a little more spice with Welker returning to Foxboro. Both teams will likely be healthy and trying to shape up for the postseason. It could also be a battle for gets homefield for the playoffs. 

PREDICTION 

10 to 12 wins - They have a tough schedule facing the AFC North and NFC South, two of the better divisions in football, but the Patriots are still the Patriots. I do not expect a significant drop-off especially in the weak AFC East.  

Charlie.  

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Enhancing your Fantasy Football League

Here at SnoTap, we are working on expanding our Fantasy Sports coverage. Since this effort is beginning during football season, we will look at fantasy football for the upcoming season, but fear not, we will also look in depth at baseball and basketball as their next seasons begin.

The first step is to discuss how to spice up the average fantasy football league. One of the great things about fantasy sports is how flexible it is for each league. There are endless opportunities for commissioners to adjust their league’s rules. What are some things you could do to make your league more fun for you?

Change the Members in Your League:  One of the most important things that create the identity of the league is who is actually in the league. This will decide how people play, how much knowledge they have, and how long they will pay attention. For example, if you want a more casual league that is an introduction into fantasy sports, create a family/work league. This will allow everyone to run a team, but it won’t be overwhelming in terms of commitment or competition. If you want something potentially more intense, find a group of friends that know a lot about fantasy sports and want to play. A friends’ league will usually create more smack talk. The competitive level of the league will always center on who is in the league, and what their knowledge is.

Amount of Teams: Most leagues will just add as many players as they can until they get to the limit of 10-12 teams. However, changing the amount of teams can change the experience as a whole. For beginners, a smaller league in the 8-10 range will allow everyone to have players that they recognize without a lot of research required. However, players with more knowledge might want to play in a larger league, which creates more separation between the true star players in the league from the rest of the pack. Generally, a larger league will mean more competition over NFL players, and thus a deeper, more difficult to navigate talent pool.

Auction: Tired of the draft going back and forth in the same order? Frustrated with getting the fourth pick in the draft and never having the opportunity to take the best overall player? Push your league to be an auction league. It allows each team owner to select their own strategy and go with it, without someone being snatched off the board right before they get to draft. Each team gets a set budget heading into the draft. From there, members of the league will nominate a player up to auction, and then the member of the league who is willing to pay the most for that player, gets the player.

PPR: Point per Reception, or PPR, leagues are a great way to increase scoring for those leagues that like having more points in each matchup. The PPR format gives more importance to the wide receivers, especially the Wes Welker type players. Each reception is given a point value, usually 1 or .5, and awarded for each catch a player has. This is also a great way to reward players who are a large part of the offense more consistently, rather than just waiting for the weeks with touchdowns.

Defense: One of the biggest complaints about fantasy football is it relegates 50% of the game, defense, to one specific player. There are leagues out there that allow players to draft individual defensive players and collect their stats for points. These leagues can be customized to include points for tackles, fumbles, interceptions, sacks, and more if necessary. It’s a good way to allow fans of both sides of the ball to play fantasy sports.

Keeper/Dynasty: Once a league has decided to play every year, it makes sense to make it a keeper/dynasty league. This allows teams to keep players from season to season, making it a bit more fun to build around certain players. It will also alter strategies a bit to make sure people are thinking about the future. The fact that teams are playing for next season allows those that are eliminated from playoff contention to still work on their roster for the following season. A keeper league usually means teams keep somewhere in the range of 2-4 players, where a dynasty league has a lot more keepers, usually close to a full roster.

Waivers/Free Agent Bidding: It is important for leagues to not just give all the good free agents to whoever is able to log online first. It’s beneficial for leagues to institute a Waiver or Free Agent Bidding System. In a waiver system, players are locked until Tuesday/Wednesday of the week, and teams are allowed to place claims on players. The league has a waiver priority order, where the best rank is awarded the player, similar to the process professional sports uses. Once a team is awarded a player off of waivers, they jump to the back of the line. It allows all of the transactions to process at once, spreading out the week to week talent. Free Agent bidding is similar to waivers, where the process pushes through all of the transactions on the same day, but instead of a waiver priority, each team has a budget for the season, and they bid on each player. The owner who bids the highest is awarded the player, but loses the money they bid for future players.

These are some great ways to add even more fun to your fantasy league. At SnoTap we will keep looking into the start of the fantasy football season. Next week, we will look into some general strategies for drafts, including some insight from Bryan Reynolds. If any fantasy players have questions for the upcoming football season, or current baseball season, send your questions to Snotap12@gmail.com, and Bryan and I will make sure to answer them in the following week’s column.

Adam

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